相关论文: Generation interval contraction and epidemic data …
Accurate identification of effective epidemic threshold is essential for understanding epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The existing studies on the effective epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model generally…
We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
Disease spread in most biological populations requires the proximity of agents. In populations where the individuals have spatial mobility, the contact graph is generated by the "collision dynamics" of the agents, and thus the evolution of…
Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…
How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…
Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of…
Airborne infection risk analysis is usually performed for enclosed spaces where susceptible individuals are exposed to infectious airborne respiratory droplets by inhalation. It is usually based on exponential, dose-response models of which…
Network-based epidemic models have been extensively employed to understand the spread of infectious diseases, but have generally overlooked the fact that most realistic networks are dynamical rather than static. In this paper, we study a…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
In a collection of particles performing independent random walks on $\mathbb Z^d$ we study the spread of an infection with SIR dynamics. Susceptible particles become infected when they meet an infected particle. Infected particles heal and…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…