相关论文: Generation interval contraction and epidemic data …
Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed exactly but rather known to lie in an interval between two successive…
In real social networks, person-to-person interactions are known to be heterogeneous, which can affect the way a disease spreads through a population, reaches a tipping point in the fraction of infected individuals, and becomes an epidemic.…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
We have performed individual-based lattice simulations of SIR and SEIR dynamics to investigate both the short and long-term dynamics of childhood epidemics. In our model, infection takes place through a combination of local and long-range…
To provide a comprehensive view for dynamics of and on many real-world temporal networks, we investigate the interplay of temporal connectivity patterns and spreading phenomena, in terms of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model on…
In this paper, we study the trajectory of a classic SIR epidemic on a family of dynamic random graphs of fixed size, whose set of edges continuously evolves over time. We set general infection and recovery times, and start the epidemic from…
We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Epidemic control is of great importance for human society. Adjusting interacting partners is an effective individualized control strategy. Intuitively, it is done either by shortening the interaction time between susceptible and infected…
In the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) models, the peak of infected individuals coincides with the in ection point of removed individuals. Nevertheless, a survey based on the data…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and…
Herd immunity is a critical concept in epidemiology, describing a threshold at which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune, either through infection or vaccination, thereby preventing sustained transmission of a pathogen. In the…
Various theoretical models have been proposed to understand the basic nature of epidemics. Recent studies focus on the effects of mobility to epidemic process. However, uncorrelated random walk is typically assumed as the type of movement.…
In the face of serious infectious diseases, governments endeavour to implement containment measures such as public vaccination at a macroscopic level. Meanwhile, individuals tend to protect themselves by avoiding contacts with infections at…
Incorporating dynamic contact networks and delayed awareness into a contagion model with memory, we study the spreading patterns of infectious diseases in connected populations. It is found that the spread of an infectious disease is not…
Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…