相关论文: Evaluating Throwing Ability in Baseball

Memory is an important aspect of intelligence and plays a role in many deep reinforcement learning models. However, little progress has been made in understanding when specific memory systems help more than others and how well they…

Control has long been recognized as a critical component of pitcher performance, reflecting a pitcher's ability to execute pitches in alignment with his intended targets. However, accurately inferring a pitcher's intentions presents a…

We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit…

We investigate a variety of cut and choose games, their relationship with (generic) large cardinals, and show that they can be used to characterize a number of properties of ideals and of partial orders: certain notions of distributivity,…

We propose a new approach for computing tunneling rates in quantum or thermal field theory with multiple scalar fields. It is based on exact analytical solutions of piecewise linear potentials with many segments that describes any given…

We develop a statistical framework to evaluate evidence of alleged cheating involving illegal signaling in sports from a forensic perspective. We explain why, instead of a frequentist procedure, a Bayesian approach is called for. We apply…

A hockey player's plus-minus measures the difference between goals scored by and against that player's team while the player was on the ice. This measures only a marginal effect, failing to account for the influence of the others he is…

Platform trials evaluate multiple experimental treatments against a common control group (and/or against each other), which often reduces the trial duration and sample size. Bayesian platform designs offer several practical advantages,…

The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues…

Pressing is a fundamental defensive strategy in football, characterized by applying pressure on the ball owning team to regain possession. Despite its significance, existing metrics for measuring pressing often lack precision or…

In the design of clinical trials, it is essential to assess the design operating characteristics (e.g., power and the type I error rate). Common practice for the evaluation of operating characteristics in Bayesian clinical trials relies on…

We consider a generalization of the classical 100 Prisoner problem and its variant, involving empty boxes, whereby winning probabilities for a team depend on the number of attempts, as well as on the number of winners. We call this the…

As machine learning models become more general, we need to characterise them in richer, more meaningful ways. We describe a method to infer the cognitive profile of a system from diverse experimental data. To do so, we introduce measurement…

The failure rate function plays an important role in studying the lifetime distributions in reliability theory and life testing models. A study of the general failure rate model $r(t)=a+bt^{\theta-1}$, under squared error loss function…

Although basketball is a dualistic sport, with all players competing on both offense and defense, almost all of the sport's conventional metrics are designed to summarize offensive play. As a result, player valuations are largely based on…

We develop techniques to quantify the degree to which a given (training or testing) example is an outlier in the underlying distribution. We evaluate five methods to score examples in a dataset by how well-represented the examples are, for…

The National Basketball Association(NBA) has expanded their data gathering and have heavily invested in new technologies to gather advanced performance metrics on players. This expanded data set allows analysts to use unique performance…

We use a simple machine learning model, logistically-weighted regularized linear least squares regression, in order to predict baseball, basketball, football, and hockey games. We do so using only the thirty-year record of which visiting…

Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…

Dice control involves "setting" the dice and then throwing them carefully, in the hope of influencing the outcomes and gaining an advantage at craps. How does one test for this ability? To specify the alternative hypothesis, we need a…