相关论文: Modeling and Controlling Interstate Conflict

This paper aims at the study of controllability properties and induced controllability metrics on complex networks governed by a class of (discrete time) linear decision processes with mul-tiplicative noise. The dynamics are given by a…

In communications, unknown variables are usually modelled as random variables, and concepts such as independence, entropy and information are defined in terms of the underlying probability distributions. In contrast, control theory often…

We use evolutionary game theory to examine how conflict-averse centrism can facilitate authoritarian success in polarized political conflicts. Such conflicts are often asymmetric: authoritarian actors can employ norm-breaking or coercive…

We conducted an empirical analysis into the relation between control and discourse structure. We applied control criteria to four dialogues and identified 3 levels of discourse structure. We investigated the mechanism for changing control…

As AI systems increasingly mediate negotiations, understanding how the number of negotiated issues impacts human performance is crucial for maintaining human agency. We designed a human-AI negotiation case study in a realistic property…

Recent control trends are increasingly relying on communication networks and wireless channels to close the loop for Internet-of-Things applications. Traditionally these approaches are model-based, i.e., assuming a network or channel model…

Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…

We consider a general class of stochastic networks and ask which network nodes need to be controlled, and how, to stabilize and switch between desired metastable (target) states in terms of the first and second statistical moments of the…

As artificial agents become increasingly capable, what internal structure is *necessary* for an agent to act competently under uncertainty? Classical results show that optimal control can be *implemented* using belief states or world…

We consider a causal inference model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. In particular, we suppose that the form of network interference is unknown to researchers. To…

We describe the experimental methodology developed and employed in a series of experiments within the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Conflict Modeling, Planning, and Outcomes Exploration (COMPOEX) Program. The primary…

We introduce and analyze a continuous time and state-space model of opinion cascades on networks of large numbers of agents that form opinions about two or more options. By leveraging our recent results on the emergence of agreement and…

We provide four case studies that use Bayesian machinery to making inductive reasoning. Our main motivation relies in offering several instances where the Bayesian approach to data analysis is exploited at its best to perform complex tasks,…

Presence of bias (in datasets or tasks) is inarguably one of the most critical challenges in machine learning applications that has alluded to pivotal debates in recent years. Such challenges range from spurious associations between…

Network congestion games are a well-understood model of multi-agent strategic interactions. Despite their ubiquitous applications, it is not clear whether it is possible to design information structures to ameliorate the overall experience…

For many optimization problems it is possible to define a distance metric between problem variables that correlates with the likelihood and strength of interactions between the variables. For example, one may define a metric so that the…

We present an algorithm for model-based reinforcement learning that combines Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with random roll-outs and stochastic optimization for policy learning. The BNNs are trained by minimizing $\alpha$-divergences,…

Inputs to machine learning models can have associated noise or uncertainties, but they are often ignored and not modelled. It is unknown if Bayesian Neural Networks and their approximations are able to consider uncertainty in their inputs.…

Autonomous agents, such as robots or intelligent devices, need to understand how to interact with objects and its environment. Affordances are defined as the relationships between an agent, the objects, and the possible future actions in…