相关论文: Modeling and Controlling Interstate Conflict

In this paper we develop a scientific approach to control inter-country conflict. This system makes use of a neural network and a feedback control approach. It was found that by controlling the four controllable inputs: Democracy,…

Bayesian Networks (BN) provide robust probabilistic methods of reasoning under uncertainty, but despite their formal grounds are strictly based on the notion of conditional dependence, not much attention has been paid so far to their use in…

Previous models of international conflict have suffered two shortfalls. They tended not to embody dynamic changes, focusing rather on static slices of behavior over time. These models have also been empirically evaluated in ways that…

Militarised conflict is one of the risks that have a significant impact on society. Militarised Interstate Dispute (MID) is defined as an outcome of interstate interactions, which result on either peace or conflict. Effective prediction of…

In this review, we assess the use of Bayesian methods in model predictive control (MPC), focusing on neural-network-based modeling, control design, and uncertainty quantification. We systematically analyze individual studies and how they…

A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. When used in conjunction with statistical techniques, the graphical model has several advantages for data analysis. One, because…

The internal model principle, originally proposed in the theory of control of linear systems, nowadays represents a more general class of results in control theory and cybernetics. The central claim of these results is that, under suitable…

This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…

We propose the use of Bayesian networks, which provide both a mean value and an uncertainty estimate as output, to enhance the safety of learned control policies under circumstances in which a test-time input differs significantly from the…

Reinforcement learning methods are increasingly used to optimise dialogue policies from experience. Most current techniques are model-free: they directly estimate the utility of various actions, without explicit model of the interaction…

The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions in a social network is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

The problem of learning in the absence of external intelligence is discussed in the context of a simple model. The model consists of a set of randomly connected, or layered integrate-and fire neurons. Inputs to and outputs from the…

One's ability to learn a generative model of the world without supervision depends on the extent to which one can construct abstract knowledge representations that generalize across experiences. To this end, capturing an accurate…

Intersectionality is a framework that analyzes how interlocking systems of power and oppression affect individuals along overlapping dimensions including race, gender, sexual orientation, class, and disability. Intersectionality theory…

Notwithstanding the usefulness of system dynamics in analyzing complex policy problems, policy design is far from straightforward and in many instances trial-and-error driven. To address this challenge, we propose to combine system dynamics…

The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g. regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim…

This paper describes and discusses Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). The paper showcases a few different applications of them for classification and regression problems. BNNs are comprised of a Probabilistic Model and a Neural Network. The…

Decades of research has found that democratic dyads rarely exhibit violent tendencies, making the democratic peace arguably the principal finding of Peace Science. However, the democratic peace rests upon a dyadic understanding of conflict.…

A method based on Bayesian neural networks and genetic algorithm is proposed to control the fermentation process. The relationship between input and output variables is modelled using Bayesian neural network that is trained using hybrid…