相关论文: Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy mod…

Monte Carlo dropout may effectively capture model uncertainty in deep learning, where a measure of uncertainty is obtained by using multiple instances of dropout at test time. However, Monte Carlo dropout is applied across the whole network…

A series of monte carlo studies were performed to assess the extent to which different inference procedures robustly output reasonable belief values in the context of increasing levels of judgmental imprecision. It was found that, when…

This paper presents an in-depth mathematical analysis of the Monte Carlo replica method, commonly used in global fitting studies within the high-energy physics theory field. For the first time, we offer a rigorous derivation of the…

Reliability analysis is a sub-field of uncertainty quantification that assesses the probability of a system performing as intended under various uncertainties. Traditionally, this analysis relies on deterministic models, where experiments…

We propose a rigorous decomposition of predictive error, highlighting that not all 'irreducible' error is genuinely immutable. Many domains stand to benefit from iterative enhancements in measurement, construct validity, and modeling. Our…

Many scientific and engineering applications require fitting regression models that are nonlinear in the parameters. Advances in computer hardware and software in recent decades have made it easier to fit such models. Relative to fitting…

Mean Opinion Score (MOS) prediction has made significant progress in specific domains. However, the unstable performance of MOS prediction models across diverse samples presents ongoing challenges in the practical application of these…

Student success models might be prone to develop weak spots, i.e., examples hard to accurately classify due to insufficient representation during model creation. This weakness is one of the main factors undermining users' trust, since model…

In this paper we study the problem of making predictions using multiple structural casual models defined by different agents, under the constraint that the prediction satisfies the criterion of counterfactual fairness. Relying on the…

Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…

Estimating epistemic uncertainty of models used in low-latency applications and Out-Of-Distribution samples detection is a challenge due to the computationally demanding nature of uncertainty estimation techniques. Estimating model…

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Although neural networks are powerful function approximators, the underlying modelling assumptions ultimately define the likelihood and thus the hypothesis class they are parameterizing. In classification, these assumptions are minimal as…

We describe Monte Carlo methods for estimating lower envelopes of expectations of real random variables. We prove that the estimation bias is negative and that its absolute value shrinks with increasing sample size. We discuss fairly…

In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…

Dynamic models of biochemical networks typically consist of sets of non-linear ordinary differential equations involving states (concentrations or amounts of the components of the network) and parameters describing the reaction kinetics.…

Intractable generative models are models for which the likelihood is unavailable but sampling is possible. Most approaches to parameter inference in this setting require the computation of some discrepancy between the data and the…

Model selection and assessment with incomplete data pose challenges in addition to the ones encountered with complete data. There are two main reasons for this. First, many models describe characteristics of the complete data, in spite of…

The examination of uncertainty in the predictions of machine learning (ML) models is receiving increasing attention. One uncertainty modeling technique used for this purpose is Monte-Carlo (MC)-Dropout, where repeated predictions are…

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…