经济学
We study a principal-agent problem with adverse selection, where the principal does not know the agent's true cost but must design a contract to optimize a specific criterion. Unlike standard screening frameworks that allow for…
Triple differences (DDD) is a workhorse quasi-experimental design in applied economics. But, under staggered adoption, its conventional three-way fixed-effects (3WFE) implementation inherits the interpretation issues now well understood in…
We examine marital sorting using novel data from a marriage-matching platform that records both a dating-to-marriage pipeline and pre-marital attributes, including preferences for children and for the division of housework and childcare.…
This paper develops a theoretical model of platform competition where user-generated content (UGC) quality arises endogenously from the composition of the user base. Users differ in their relative preferences for content quality and network…
Enormous attention and resources are being devoted to the quest for artificial general intelligence and, even more ambitiously, artificial superintelligence. We wonder about the implications for methodological research that aims to help…
How should well-being be prioritised in society, and what trade-offs are people willing to make between fairness and personal well-being? We investigate these questions using a stated preference experiment with a nationally representative…
Central banks cannot observe market reactions to their communications before release. We propose a framework in which Large Language Models simulate 30 heterogeneous traders interpreting European Central Bank press conference transcripts,…
The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for constructing the counterfactual of a treated unit based on data from control units in a donor pool. Allowing the donor pool contains more control units than time periods, we propose a…
Should households buy their homes? Contrary to popular expert advice, our block-bootstrap lifecycle simulation provides an affirmative answer. Homeownership generates wealth and welfare gains relative to rent-for-life benchmarks that invest…
We study optimal contract design for large populations of heterogeneous agents whose actions generate network spillovers represented by an interaction function. In a linear-quadratic framework, we solve the finite-agent problem and its…
This paper examines how digital transformation reshapes employment structures within Chinese listed firms, focusing on occupational functions and task intensity. Drawing on recruitment data classified under ISCO-08 and the Chinese Standard…
We analyze incomplete-information games where an oracle publicly shares information with players. One oracle dominates another if, in every game, it can match the set of equilibrium outcomes induced by the latter. Distinct characterizations…
Local projections (LPs) are widely used for impulse response analysis, but Bayesian methods face challenges due to the absence of a likelihood function. Existing approaches rely on pseudo-likelihoods, which often result in poorly calibrated…
Although tractor services are increasingly used in the Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality, access remains uneven, and some smallholder maize farmers still rely on labour-intensive production methods. This study investigated the profitability…
In this paper, we reveal that the signal representation of information introduced by Gentzkow and Kamenica (2017) can be applied profitably to dynamic decision problems. We use this to characterize when one dynamic information structure is…
Algorithmic pricing raises a question of interpretation as well as intervention: when autonomous deep-learning pricing systems sustain supracompetitive prices, what strategic pattern have they learned, and how might market institutions…
We derive the asymptotic theory of Bai (2009)'s interactive fixed effects estimator for unbalanced panels in which the source of attrition is conditionally random. For inference, we propose a method of alternating projections algorithm…
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian approach for local projection instrumental-variables (LP-IV) estimation. It builds a moment-based quasi-posterior using the generalized method of moments (GMM) objective and applies a roughness-penalty…
Macroeconomic dynamics is typically modeled under the assumption that the economy evolves according to a single invariant law of motion. This paper shows that this assumption imposes a structural restriction. We develop Dynamic…
Many tractable TANK models treat redistribution as a contemporaneous wedge. I show that this view is incomplete once wage contracts are type-specific. In a tractable Two-Agent New Keynesian model, each household type adjusts its nominal…