经济学
How should researchers adjust for covariates? We show that if the propensity score is estimated using a specific covariate balancing approach, inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW), and inverse…
With 70 million dead, World War II remains the most devastating conflict in history. Among the survivors, millions were displaced, returned maimed from the battlefield, or endured years of captivity. We examine the effects of such war…
This paper proposes semi-instrumental variables (semi-IVs) as an alternative to instrumental variables (IVs) to identify the causal effect of a binary (or discrete) endogenous treatment. A semi-IV is a less restrictive form of instrument:…
This paper specifies an extensive form as a 5-ary relation (that is, as a set of quintuples) which satisfies eight abstract axioms. Each quintuple is understood to list a player, a situation (that is, a name for an information set), a…
This paper considers identification and estimation of distributional effect parameters that depend on the joint distribution of an outcome and another variable of interest ("treatment") in a setting with "two-sided" measurement error --…
Pharmaceutical markets for life-saving therapies combine monopoly power with insurance coverage. We build a tractable sequential game in which a patent-holder chooses the drug price, a profit-maximising insurer sets its premium, and a…
We extend the indirect evolutionary approach to the selection of (possibly misspecified) models. Agents with different models match in pairs to play a stage game, where models define feasible beliefs about game parameters and about others'…
This study investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on job loss rates using the Global AI Content Impact Dataset (2020--2025). The panel comprises 200 industry-country-year observations across Australia, China,…
Large Language Models have spread rapidly since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, accompanied by claims of major productivity gains but also concerns about job displacement. This paper examines the short-run labor market effects of LLM…
This paper models voters who invest effort to determine whether a particular claim relevant to their voting choices is correct. If a voter succeeds in determining whether the claim is correct, this information is shared via a social…
In this paper, we develop inference methods for the distribution of heterogeneous individual treatment effects (ITEs) in the nonseparable triangular model with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrument of Vuong and Xu (2017) and…
We propose two opposing forces that impact the relation between electoral integrity and poverty. On the one hand, it is more costly to provide electoral integrity in states where there is more poverty due to transaction costs and…
While battery electric vehicles (BEVs) play a key role for decarbonizing the transport sector, their impact on the power sector heavily depends on their charging strategies. Here we systematically analyze various combinations between…
Generative AI is altering work processes, task composition, and organizational design, yet its effects on employment and the macroeconomy remain unresolved. In this review, we synthesize theory and empirical evidence at three levels. First,…
There has been substantial public debate about the potentially deleterious effects of the long-run move to ``inquiry-based learning'' in which students are placed at the center of an educational journey and arrive at their own understanding…
Choice consistency with utility maximization, as a key assumption in economics, has been extensively used to evaluate decision quality of individuals and to predict real-world outcomes across different contexts. Here we investigate the…
We study the competitive and welfare effects of copyright in creative industries in the face of cost-reducing technologies such as generative artificial intelligence. Creative products often feature unstructured attributes (e.g., images and…
The log transformation is widely used in linear regression, mainly because coefficients are interpretable as proportional effects. Yet this practice has fundamental limitations, most notably that the log is undefined at zero, creating an…
We uncover a close link between outside options and risk attitude: when a decision-maker gains access to an outside option, her behaviour becomes less risk-averse, and conversely, any observed decrease of risk-aversion can be explained by…
Most betting market models employ static frameworks that condition decisions on final odds. Using a unique dataset of interim odds from Japanese horse racing, this study examines the validity of such static analyses by asking whether there…