经济学
In the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) model of Chernozhukov and Hansen (2005), a one-dimensional unobserved rank variable monotonically determines a single potential outcome. In practice, when researchers are interested in…
Using FOMC transcripts and customized deep learning models, we quantify ``hidden dissent'', or disagreement in the FOMC that is unobserved in formal votes. We find hidden dissent to be prevalent and systematically driven by macroeconomic…
I study a model of information acquisition and transmission in which the sender's ability to misreport her findings is limited. The sender learns covertly, so a key observation is that in equilibrium she must be deterred from undetectably…
In this paper, I formalize intelligence measurement in games by introducing mechanisms that assign a real number -- interpreted as an intelligence score -- to each player in a game. This score quantifies the ex-post strategic ability of the…
This study proposes a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating parameters of lognormal distribution mixtures for income. Using simulated data examples, we examined the proposed algorithm's performance and the accuracy…
The era of technological change entails complex patterns of changes in wages and employment. We develop a unified framework to evaluate the effects of capital-embodied technological change on, as well as the contributions of factor inputs…
We consider a principal who wishes to screen an agent with \emph{discrete} types by offering a menu of \emph{discrete} quantities and \emph{discrete} transfers. We assume that the principal's valuation is discrete strictly concave and use a…
We analyze a principal-agent procurement problem in which the principal (she) is unaware some of the marginal cost types of the agent (he). Communication arises naturally as some types of the agent may have an incentive to raise the…
We introduce convex function intervals (CFIs): families of convex functions satisfying given level and slope constraints. CFIs naturally arise as constraint sets in economic design, including problems with type-dependent participation…
The study explores the evolution of Chile's industrial policy from 1990 to 2022 through the lens of state capacity, innovation and endogenous development. In a global context where governments are reasserting their role as active agents of…
This article challenges the conventional reading of Francis Ysidro Edgeworth by reconstructing his intellectual project of unifying the moral sciences through mathematics. The contribution he made in the first phase of his writing,…
We study blockchain trade-intent auctions, which currently intermediate about USD 10 billion in trades each month. These auctions are combinatorial because executing multiple trade intents jointly generates additional efficiencies. However,…
This paper demonstrates how reinforcement learning can explain two puzzling empirical patterns in household consumption behavior during economic downturns. I develop a model where agents use Q-learning with neural network approximation to…
We study a policy evaluation problem in centralized markets. We show that the aggregate impact of any marginal reform, the Marginal Policy Effect (MPE), is nonparametrically identified using data from a baseline equilibrium, without…
As e-commerce marketplaces continue to grow in popularity, it has become increasingly important to understand the role and impact of marketplace operators on competition and social welfare. We model a marketplace operator as an entity that…
Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non-Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the $\argmax$ of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high-level sufficient conditions under which such…
We characterize the extreme points of the set of incentive-compatible mechanisms for screening problems with linear utility. Our framework subsumes problems with and without transfers, such as monopoly pricing, principal-optimal bilateral…
The command did_multiplegt_dyn can be used to estimate event-study effects in complex designs with a potentially non-binary and/or non-absorbing treatment. This paper starts by providing an overview of the estimators computed by the…
This paper develops a novel econometric framework for static discrete choice games with costly information acquisition. In traditional discrete games, players are assumed to perfectly know their own payoffs when making decisions, ignoring…
This study investigates how Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) contribute to de-risking development in Sub-Saharan Africa by shaping Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows and supporting sustainable economic transformation. Focusing on…