经济学

This paper develops valid bootstrap inference methods for the dynamic short panel threshold regression. We show that the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent for the first-differenced generalized method of moments (GMM)…

We build a game-theoretic model to formalize Kindleberger's (1996) idea of the public good of leadership. Two superpowers use ideology to compete for influence by forming clubs whose members benefit more when their orientations are closer…

I introduce a new method for bias correction of dyadic models with agent-specific fixed effects, including the dyadic link formation model with homophily and degree heterogeneity. The proposed approach uses a jackknife procedure to deal…

We introduce a synthetic control methodology to study policies with staggered adoption. Many policies, such as the board gender diversity policies, are replicated by other policy setters at different time frames. Our method estimates the…

Political "circuses" may undermine democratic accountability if leaders facing scandal can reliably pull media coverage toward fresh topics and away from substantive investigations or evaluations. We investigate whether politicians…

This paper studies one-sided matching under a complete exchange (CE) requirement, where each agent must be assigned an object different from its initial endowment. We introduce assignment partition -- a partition of agents and choice sets…

A planner wants to select one agent out of n agents on the basis of a binary characteristic that is commonly known to all agents but is not observed by the planner. Any pair of agents can either be friends or enemies or impartials of each…

Given the combined evidences of bounded rationality, limited information and short-term optimization, over-the-counter (OTC) fresh product markets provide a perfect instance where to develop a behavioural approach to the analysis of…

This paper studies double/debiased machine learning (DML) methods applied to weakly dependent data. We allow observations to be situated in a general metric space that accommodates spatial and network data. Existing work implements…

We study equilibrium strategies and the value of the asymmetric variant of the discrete Colonel Blotto game with $K \geq 2$ battlefields, $B \geq 1$ resources of the weaker player and $A > B$ resources of the stronger player. We derive…

Europe's largest bank by assets as of 2025 started out in the 1860s in one of Europe's colonies: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Co (HSBC). Multiple wars forced Qing China and later the young Republic of China into a series of unequal…

Since the Industrial Revolution, the world economy has experienced rapid development, and China's economy has also achieved an unprecedented takeoff in the past. Behind the economic growth, population surge, and continuous improvement of…

We investigate how government-orchestrated assaults on the judiciary, disguised as modernization efforts, undermine judicial independence. Our study focuses on Venezuela's constitutional overhaul in the early 2000s, initiated by Hugo…

Estimation and counterfactual analysis in dynamic structural models rely on assumptions about the dynamic process of latent variables, which may be misspecified. We propose a framework to quantify the sensitivity of scalar parameters of…

We study optimal taxation when citizens are not fully confident that the government will transform tax revenue into useful public goods. In an otherwise standard Ramsey framework, a representative agent values a public good financed by…

Can players sustain long-run trust when their equilibrium beliefs are shaped by machine-learning methods that penalize complexity? I study a game in which an infinite sequence of agents with one-period recall decides whether to place trust…

We present evidence from a field experiment across 66 firms and 7,137 knowledge workers. Workers were randomly selected to access a generative AI tool integrated into applications they already used at work for email, meetings, and writing.…

We present four novel tests of equal predictive accuracy and encompassing \`a la Pitarakis (2023, 2025) for factor-augmented regressions, where factors are estimated using cross-section averages (CAs) of grouped series. Our inferential…

We investigate investors voluntary disclosure decisions under uncertainty about their information endowment (Dye 1985). In our model, an investor may receive initial evidence about a target firm. Conditional on learning the initial…

This paper studies Difference-in-Differences (DiD) setups with repeated cross-sectional data and potential compositional changes across time periods. We begin our analysis by deriving the efficient influence function and the semiparametric…