经济学
The addition of phosphorus, in the form of mineral fertilizer, becomes necessary in most agricultural soils in order to achieve consistent high yield levels of intensive farming and maintain soil fertility. Recent consolidation of phosphate…
We propose plug-in (PI) and double machine learning (DML) estimators of average treatment effect (ATE), average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) and local average treatment effect (LATE) in the multivariate sample selection model with…
This paper proposes a novel framework to test for slope heterogeneity between time-varying coefficients in panel data models. Our test not only allows us to detect whether the coefficient functions are the same across all units or not, but…
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly mediate economic and organisational processes, from automated customer support and recruitment to investment advice and policy analysis. These systems are often assumed to embody rational decision…
This paper proposes methods for producing compound selection decisions in a Gaussian sequence model. Given unknown, fixed parameters $\mu_ {1:n}$ and known $\sigma_{1:n}$ with observations $Y_i \sim \textsf{N}(\mu_i, \sigma_i^2)$, the…
Costly pre-play messages can deter unnecessary wars - but the same messages can also entrench stalemates once violence begins. We develop an overlapping-generations model of a security dilemma with persistent group types (normal vs bad),…
We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is purpose-built for leveraging exogenous…
We propose a framework that recasts scientific novelty not as a single attribute of a paper, but as a reflection of its position within the evolving intellectual landscape. We decompose this position into two orthogonal dimensions:…
In electricity systems supplied by renewable energy sources (RES), storage operators shift energy across time, helping maintain system adequacy. However, characterizing their strategic role and identifying the conditions under which…
In this paper, we consider finite-strategy approximations of infinite-strategy evolutionary games. We prove that such approximations converge to the true dynamics over finite-time intervals, under mild regularity conditions which are…
This paper evaluates the short and medium-term effectiveness of payroll tax reductions aimed at promoting the permanent conversion of temporary contracts through social contribution exemptions. Using rich administrative data from Tuscany,…
We present NoLBERT, a lightweight, timestamped foundational language model for empirical research -- particularly for forecasting in economics, finance, and the social sciences. By pretraining exclusively on text from 1976 to 1995, NoLBERT…
We study dynamic reputation in a social-learning environment where only purchase decisions are observable. A long-lived seller posts a fixed price and chooses costly product quality in each period before interacting with short-lived buyers…
We study how tariffs affect industrial structure and welfare in an economy where sectors are complements and preferences are nonhomothetic -- two drivers of structural change. Import tariffs on a sector influence sectoral composition by…
Can stated preferences inform counterfactual analyses of actual choice? This research proposes a novel approach to researchers who have access to both stated choices in hypothetical scenarios and actual choices, matched or unmatched. The…
We study linear regressions in a context where the outcome of interest and some of the covariates are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched. Traditional approaches obtain point identification by relying, often…
Applied macroeconomists frequently use impulse response estimators motivated by linear models. We study whether the estimands of such procedures have a causal interpretation when the true data generating process is in fact nonlinear. We…
I analyze proprietary data from BizReach (2014-2024) to estimate the matching function for high-skill workers on a private on-the-job search platform using Lange and Papageorgiou (2020) nonparametric approach. Comparing it to Hello Work, I…
Online lending, a phenomenon which is becoming mainstream due to the migration of consumer finance to the Internet and the adoption of AI based lending models, is an example of learning by doing. This paper studies optimal policies for a…
We propose a constrained generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator with some equilibrium uniqueness conditions for estimating the conduct parameter in a log-linear model with homogeneous goods markets. Monte Carlo simulations…