经济学
This study investigates the contribution of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) derived from economic time series to the predictive performance of neural network models, specifically Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory…
This paper investigates the nexus between subjective well-being and sustainability, proxied by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Index, using cross-country data from 126 nations in 2022. While prior research has highlighted a positive…
This paper investigates how dispersion in banks' subjective inflation forecasts is a channel of the transmission of monetary policy to credit supply. We extend the Monti-Klein model of monopolistic banking by incorporating risk aversion,…
This paper studies robust estimation in the dynamic Tobit model under local-to-unity (LUR) asymptotics. We show that both Gaussian maximum likelihood (ML) and censored least absolute deviations (CLAD) estimators are consistent, extending…
We compiled the first high-frequency rice price panel for Taiwan from August 1945 to March 1947, during the transition from Japanese rule to China rule. Using regression models, we found that the pattern of rice price changes could be…
Australian house prices have risen strongly since the mid-1990s, but growth has been highly uneven across regions. Raw growth figures obscure whether these differences reflect persistent structural trends or cyclical fluctuations. We…
We develop methods for nonparametric uniform inference in cost-sensitive binary classification, a framework that encompasses maximum score estimation, predicting utility maximizing actions, and policy learning. These problems are well known…
The evolution of global income distribution from 1988 to 2018 is analyzed using purchasing power parity exchange rates and well-established statistical distributions. This research proposes the use of two separate distributions to more…
Maximum Likelihood (ML) offers attractive alternatives to Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel data models. However, to date no identification-robust inference methods exist that can be used in conjunction with…
We propose a fresh `meta-game' perspective on the problem of algorithmic collusion in pricing games a la Bertrand. Economists have interpreted the fact that algorithms can learn to price collusively as tacit collusion. We argue instead that…
We propose tests for the convexity/linearity/concavity of a transformation of the dependent variable in a semiparametric transformation model. These tests can be used to verify monotonicity of the treatment effect, or, equivalently,…
We study the manipulability of social choice correspondences in situations where individuals have incomplete information about others' preferences. We propose a general concept of manipulability that depends on the extension rule used to…
Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior -- the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses…
We develop sharp, testable implications for the identifying assumptions of Tobit and IV-Tobit models: linear index, (joint) normality of errors, treatment (instrument) exogeneity, and relevance. The new sharp testable equalities can detect…
We test the null hypothesis that two parameters $(\mu_1,\mu_2)$ have the same sign, assuming that (asymptotically) normal estimators $(\hat{\mu}_1,\hat{\mu}_2)$ are available. Examples of this problem include the analysis of heterogeneous…
In the classical Bayesian persuasion model an informed player and an uninformed one engage in a static interaction. The informed player, the sender, knows the state of nature, while the uninformed one, the receiver, does not. The informed…
Most comparisons of preferences are instances of single-crossing dominance. We examine the lattice structure of single-crossing dominance, proving characterisation, existence and uniqueness results for minimum upper bounds of arbitrary sets…
This paper assesses the global employment and trade effects of renewed tariff escalation following the reintroduction of the United States' America First strategy in 2025. Using a multiregional input-output (MRIO) framework integrated with…
We introduce a broadly applicable statistical procedure for testing which parametric distribution family generated a random sample of data. The method, termed the Difference in Differential Entropy (DDE) test, provides a unified framework…
Using newly-assembled data from 1980 through 2024, we show that 25% of scientifically-active, US-trained STEM PhD graduates leave the US within 15 years of graduating. Leave rates are lower in the life sciences and higher in AI and quantum…