经济学
Leaving posterior sensitivity concerns aside, non-identifiability of the parameters does not raise a difficulty for Bayesian inference as far as the posterior is proper, but multi-modality or flat regions of the posterior induced by the…
When bidders bid on complex objects, they might be unaware of characteristics effecting their valuations. We assume that each buyer's valuation is a sum of independent random variables, one for each characteristic. When a bidder is unaware…
We study two-player constant-sum Bayesian games with type-independent payoffs. Under a "completeness" statistical condition, any "identifiable'" equilibrium is an ex-post equilibrium. We apply this result to a Downsian election in which…
Privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) represent a critical operational challenge for the online advertising industry, requiring substantial infrastructure investment while promising improved consumer privacy protection. Even when PETs may…
In the past decade, summer wildfires have become the norm in California, and the United States of America. These wildfires are caused due to variety of reasons. The state collects wildfire funds to help the impacted customers. However, the…
We study continuous-time persuasion where a sender controls both how informative a signal is over time and when to stop providing information to a receiver. Given an exogenous signal process, the sender can both garble the evolving signal…
Can constantly comparing ourselves to others lead to overconsumption, ultimately increasing the ecological footprint? How do social comparisons shape green preferences over time? To answer these questions, we develop an environmental…
What was the origin of modern economic growth? Joel Mokyr has argued that self-sustained modern economic growth originated from a feedback loop between propositional (theoretical) and prescriptive (applied) knowledge, which turned positive…
This paper develops a real-time forecasting framework for the monthly real prices of four key industrial metals -- aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc -- whose demand is rising due to their widespread use in manufacturing and low-carbon…
International remittances represent a vital source of disaster adaptation finance for households around the world, yet their responsiveness to environmental disasters remains poorly quantified. We reveal a previously unmeasured global…
This paper studies preference aggregation under ambiguity when agents have incomplete preference relations due to imprecise beliefs. We introduce the "dual" of the Pareto principle, which respects unanimity among individuals, including…
The double machine learning (DML) method combines the predictive power of machine learning with statistical estimation to conduct inference about the structural parameter of interest. This paper presents the R package `xtdml`, which…
To model the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy, a novel discrete-time, uncertain, infinite time horizon, dynamic game model is developed, where the uncertainties of expectations are modeled by unknown nonlinear but quadratically…
Traditional auction theory posits that bid value exhibits a positive correlation with the probability of securing the auctioned object in ascending auctions. However, under uncertainty and incomplete information, as is characteristic in…
Time series prediction algorithms are increasingly central to decision-making in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, energy management, and economic planning. Yet, these systems often inherit and amplify biases embedded in historical…
This paper studies the axiomatic bargaining problem and proposes a new class of bargaining solutions, called coarse Nash solutions. These solutions assign to each problem a set of outcomes coarser than that chosen by the classical Nash…
We examine how railway expansion shaped Denmark's nineteenth-century economic transformation and the diffusion of civic engagement in the form of Grundtvigian institutions. Using a new parish-level panel (1,589 parishes) and a…
Network connections, both across and within markets, are central in countless economic contexts. In recent decades, a large literature has developed and applied flexible methods for measuring network connectedness and its evolution, based…
We consider the problem of social choice when transfers between agents are possible. This includes several canonical applications: public-good provision, management of a common resource, settlement of debts, and division of goods. The…
We study a sender-receiver model in which the receiver can commit to a decision rule before the sender determines the information policy. The decision rule can depend on the information structure chosen by the sender and the realized…