应用统计
Infrastructure networks are increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards and design flaws, making resilience assessment essential. This paper presents a scenario-based framework to evaluate network vulnerability by combining local measures…
This paper introduces a new kind of seasonal fractional autoregressive process (SFAR) driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The new model includes a standard seasonal AR model and fGn. {The estimation of the parameters of this new…
Over the last quarter-century, spacecraft conjunction assessment has focused on a quantity associated by its advocates with collision probability. This quantity has a well-known dilution feature, where it is small when uncertainty is large,…
Objective: To describe the association of demographic factors with triage acuity, hospital admission rates, and length of stay (LOS) for adult patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods: We performed a retrospective cross-sectional…
The difference in restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a clinically meaningful measure to quantify treatment effect in randomized controlled trials, especially when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Several frequentist…
Differential abundance analysis is a key component of microbiome studies. Although dozens of methods exist there is currently no consensus on the preferred methods. While the correctness of results in differential abundance analysis is an…
Population-wide screening is a powerful tool for controlling infectious diseases. Group testing enables such screening despite limited resources. Viral concentration of pooled samples are often positively correlated, either because…
This work presents a scalable Bayesian modeling framework for evaluating building energy performance using smart-meter data from 2,788 Danish single-family homes. The framework leverages Bayesian statistical inference integrated with Energy…
The Additive Voronoi Tessellations (AddiVortes) model is a multivariate regression model that uses multiple Voronoi tessellations to partition the covariate space for an additive ensemble model. In this paper, the AddiVortes framework is…
This paper proposes a model to predict the outcome of the March Madness tournament based on historical NCAA basketball data since 2013. The framework of this project is a simplification of the FiveThrityEight NCAA March Madness prediction…
We present a new method, "kairosis", for aggregating probability forecasts made over a time period of a single outcome determined at the end of that period. Informed by work on Bayesian change-point detection, we begin by constructing for…
We assess the value of calibrating forecast models for significant wave height Hs, wind speed W and mean spectral wave period Tm for forecast horizons between zero and 168 hours from a commercial forecast provider, to improve forecast…
In a context of constant increase in competition and heightened regulatory pressure, accuracy, actuarial precision, as well as transparency and understanding of the tariff, are key issues in non-life insurance. Traditionally used…
Proteins are essential components of all living organisms and play a critical role in cellular survival. They have a broad range of applications, from clinical treatments to material engineering. This versatility has spurred the development…
This study examines the historical evolution of interdisciplinary research (IDR) over a 40-year period, focusing on its dynamic trends, phases, and key turning points. We apply time series analysis to identify critical years for…
Shewhart Control Charts (SCC)s are constructed under the assumption of normality and are widely recognized in statistical quality control by numerous researchers. Problems arise when the distribution of process data does not conform to a…
Satellite conjunctions involving near misses of space objects are increasingly common, especially with the growth of satellite constellations and space debris. Accurate risk analysis for these events is essential to prevent collisions and…
This paper presents a Bayesian multilevel modeling approach for estimating well-level oil and gas production capacities across small geographic areas over multiple time periods. Focusing on a basin, which is a geologically and economically…
Combining forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have shown substantial benefit over the use of individual forecast products. Although combination, in a broad sense, is widely used in meteorological forecasting,…
Accurate tourism demand forecasting is hindered by limited historical data and complex spatiotemporal dependencies among tourist origins. A novel forecasting framework integrating virtual sample generation and a novel Transformer predictor…