应用统计
Estimation of the failure probability of offshore structures exposed to extreme ocean environments is critical to their safe design and operation. The conditional density of the environment (CDE) quantifies regions of the space of long term…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…
The Automatic Identification System (AIS) provides time stamped vessel positions and kinematic reports that enable maritime authorities to monitor traffic. We consider the problem of relabeling AIS trajectories when vessel identifiers are…
Conventional ideal point models rely on Gaussian or quadratic utility functions that violate the triangle inequality, producing non-metric distances that complicate geometric interpretation and undermine clustering and dispersion-based…
Evaluating the health effects of complex environmental mixtures remains a central challenge in environmental health research. Existing approaches vary in their flexibility, interpretability, scalability, and support for diverse outcome…
This paper introduces a unified micro-level stochastic framework for the joint modeling of loss reserves (RBNS), incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves, and unearned premium risk under dependence, inflation, and discounting. The proposed…
This study introduces a new family of probability distributions, termed the alpha power Harris-generalized (APHG) family. The generator arises by incorporating two shape parameters from the Harris-G framework into the alpha power…
The remarkable success of AlphaFold2 in providing accurate atomic-level prediction of protein structures from their amino acid sequence has transformed approaches to the protein folding problem. However, its core paradigm of mapping one…
We investigate cosmological parameter inference and model selection from a Bayesian perspective. Type Ia supernova data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SN5YR) are used to test the $\Lambda$CDM, $w$CDM, and CPL cosmological models.…
We performed large, lab-in-the-field experiment (2,591 participants across 134 Honduran villages; ten rounds) and tracked how contribution behavior unfolds in fixed, anonymous groups of size five. Contribution separates early into two…
Analyzing demographic data collected across multiple populations, time periods, and age groups is challenging due to the interplay of high dimensionality, demographic heterogeneity among groups, and stochastic variability within smaller…
Targeting and personalization policies can be used to improve outcomes beyond the uniform policy that assigns the best performing treatment in an A/B test to everyone. Personalization relies on the presence of heterogeneity of treatment…
Decisions based upon pairwise comparisons of multiple treatments are naturally performed in terms of the mean survival of the selected study arms or functions thereof. However, synthesis of treatment comparisons is usually performed on…
Ice sheet models are routinely used to quantify and project an ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. In order for an ice sheet model to generate realistic projections, its parameters must first be calibrated using observational data;…
Background: Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD) affects millions worldwide. Significant disparities exist in ADRD diagnosis and care, disproportionately impacting minority and socioeconomically vulnerable populations Objective:…
Mechanistic mathematical models of within-host viral dynamics are tools for understanding how a virus' biology and its interaction with the immune system shape the infectivity of a host. The biology of the process is encoded by the…
Dynamic treatment regimes have been proposed to personalize treatment decisions by utilizing historical patient data, but they may not always improve on the current standard of care. It is thus meaningful to integrate the standard of care…
The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives.…
We present predictive tools to calculate the number of ambulances needed according to demand of entrance calls and time of service. Our analysis discriminates between emergency and non-urgent calls. First, we consider the nonstationary…
Climate change has driven the market to seek new ways of raising funds to mitigate its effects. One such innovation is the emergence of Green Bonds financial assets specifically designed to support sustainable projects. This study explores…