综合金融
This paper argues, first, that a major problem in the planning of large infrastructure projects is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such…
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59…
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing…
The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and…
Because of the prominent position of urban rail in reducing urban transport-related problems, such as congestion and air pollution, insights into the costs of possible new urban rail projects is very relevant for those involved with cost…
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…
In this paper, simple mathematical models from Control Theory are applied to three very important economic paradigms, namely (a) minimum wages in self-regulating markets, (b) market-versus-true values and currency rates, and (c) government…
The new business paradigms originate a strong necessity to re-think the theory of the firm with the aim to get a better understanding on the organizational and functional principles of the firm, operating in the investment economies in the…
This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the…
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure…
This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin's (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD).…
As economic entities become increasingly interconnected, a shock in a financial network can provoke significant cascading failures throughout the system. To study the systemic risk of financial systems, we create a bi-partite banking…
In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship…
The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for…
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty…
The real estate is a pillar industry of China's national economy. Due to changes in policy and market conditions, the real estate companies are facing greater pressures to survive in a competitive environment. They must improve their…
The Heston model is a popular stock price model with stochastic volatility that has found numerous applications in practice. In the present paper, we study the Riemannian distance function associated with the Heston model and obtain…
This work tried to detect the existence of a relationship between the graphic signals - or patterns - observed day by day in the Brazilian stock market and the trends which happen after these signals, within a period of 8 years, for a…
The future value of a security is described as a random variable. Distribution of this random variable is the formal image of risk uncertainty. On the other side, any present value is defined as a value equivalent to the given future value.…
The investment economy is a main characteristic of prosperous society. The investment portfolio management is a main financial problem, which has to be solved by the investment, commercial and central banks with the application of modern…