种群与进化
In the wake of the COVID-19 virus outbreak, a brief phenomenological (descriptive, comparative) analysis of the dynamics of the disease spread among different countries is presented. Results indicate that the infection spread dynamics is…
Widespread opinions and discussion exist regarding the efficiency of social distancing after crucial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the actual Covid-19 pandemic. While Germany has released a federal law that prohibits any type of…
Mapping pathways to achieving the sustainable development goals requires understanding and predicting how social, economic and political factors impact biodiversity. Trends in demography, economic growth, regional alliances and consumption…
In a recent report we have collected some data about the COVID-19 epidemics in Northern Italy; in this follow-up we analyze how these changed after the mild restrictive measures taken by the Government two weeks ago and the large campaign…
Traditional vaccines against viruses are designed to target their surface proteins, i.e., antigens, which can trigger the immune system to produce specific antibodies to capture and neutralize the viruses. However, viruses often evolve…
We propose a simple model for understanding the kinetics of corona virus transmission. Our model assume spreading of corona virus can happen from one to another only, if someone without enough protection comes close contact to a person…
For nearly a century, the initial reproduction number (R0) has been used as a one number summary to compare outbreaks of infectious disease, yet there is no `standard' estimator for R0. Difficulties in estimating R0 arise both from how a…
The body is home to a diverse microbiota, mainly in the gut. Resistant bacteria are selected for by antibiotic treatments, and once resistance becomes widespread in a population of hosts, antibiotics become useless. Here, we develop a…
The central goal of a dynamical theory of evolution is to abstract the mean evolutionary trajectory in the trait space by considering ecological processes at the level of the individual. In this work, we develop such a theory for a new…
In the current COVID19 crisis many national healthcare systems are confronted with an acute shortage of tests for confirming SARS-CoV-2 infections. For low overall infection levels in the population, pooling of samples can drastically…
In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spread in some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civile from February…
When the Covid-19 pandemic enters dangerous new phase, whether and when to take aggressive public health interventions to slow down the spread of COVID-19. To develop the artificial intelligence (AI) inspired methods for real-time…
Western honeybees (Apis Mellifera) serve extremely important roles in our ecosystem and economics as they are responsible for pollinating $ 215 billion dollars annually over the world. Unfortunately, honeybee population and their colonies…
We characterize the network of COVID-19 spread in India and find that the transmission rate is 0.43, with daily case growth driven by individuals who contracted the virus abroad. We explore the question of whether this represents…
We estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions we address are these: (1) Will the ICU capacity…
The goal of this note is to present a simple mathematical model with two parameters for the number of deaths due to the corona (COVID-19) virus. The model only requires basic knowledge in differential calculus, and can also be understood by…
Attempts to curb the spread of coronavirus by introducing strict quarantine measures apparently have different effect in different countries: while the number of new cases has reportedly decreased in China and South Korea, it still exhibit…
An epidemiological model for COVID-19 was developed and implemented in MATLAB/GNU Octave for use by public health practitioners, policy makers and the general public. The model distinguishes four stages in the disease: infected, sick,…
In a move described as unprecedented in public health history, starting 24 January 2020, China imposed quarantine and isolation restrictions in Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. This raised the question: is mass quarantine and…
Initiation and development of a malignant tumor is a complex phenomenon that has critical stages determining its long time behavior. This phenomenon is mathematically described by means of various models: from simple heuristic models to…