种群与进化

The Coronavirus, also known as the COVID-19 virus, has emerged in Wuhan China since late November 2019. Since that time, it has been spreading at large-scale until today all around the world. It is currently recognized as the world's most…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic radically impacts our lives, while the transmission/infection and recovery dynamics of COVID-19 remain obscure. A time-dependent Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model…

We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The 'D' (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known…

Bacterial populations in natural conditions are expected to experience stochastic environmental fluctuations, and in addition, environments are affected by bacterial activities since they consume substrates and excrete various chemicals. We…

Objective: To conduct a meta-analysis of current studies that examined sex differences in severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19, and identify potential mechanisms underpinning these differences. Methods: We performed a systematic…

Data assimilation is used to optimally fit a classical epidemiology model to the Johns Hopkins data of the Covid-19 pandemic. The optimisation is based on the confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. This is the only data available with…

A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…

In a previous note we made an analysis of the spreading of the COVID disease in Italy. We used a model based on the logistic and Hubbert functions, the analysis we exploited has shown limited usefulness in terms of predictions and failed in…

The relationship between division of labor and individuals' spatial behavior in social insect colonies provides a useful context to study how social interactions influence the spreading of agent (which could be information or virus) across…

From March 23rd, the data for the recovered cases of COVID-19 are missing from the standard repository maintained by the Johns Hopkins University in collaboration with the WHO. But since data concerning recovered patients are extremely…

By using the public data from Jan. 20 to Feb. 11, 2020, we perform data-driven analysis and forecasting on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, especially Hubei province. Our results show that the turning points of the daily infections…

The so-called binary perfect phylogeny with persistent characters has recently been thoroughly studied in computational biology as it is less restrictive than the well known binary perfect phylogeny. Here, we focus on the notion of (binary)…

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures…

An urgent problem in controlling COVID-19 spreading is to understand the role of undocumented infection. We develop a five-state model for COVID-19, taking into account the unique features of the novel coronavirus, with key parameters…

In this paper, we have applied the logistic growth regression model and genetic algorithm to predict the number of coronavirus infected cases that can be expected in upcoming days in India and also estimated the final size and its peak time…

The CoVid-19 is spreading pandemically all over the world. A rapid defeat of the pandemic requires carrying out on the population a mass screening, able to separate positive from negative cases. Such a cleaning will free a flow of…

I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…

Objective: To conduct an early estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) induced by government interference, and to project resulting day to day number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths in a Danish…

We investigate the outcome of generalised Lotka-Volterra dynamics of ecological communities with random interaction coefficients and non-linear feedback. We show in simulations that the saturation of non-linear feedback stabilises the…

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus disease which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It originated in China in the month of December 2019 and quickly started to spread within the country. On 31st…