种群与进化
Currently, due to the COVID-19 pandemic the public life in most European countries stopped almost completely due to measures against the spread of the virus. Efforts to limit the number of new infections are threatened by the advent of new…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…
We proposed a Monte-Carlo method to estimate temporal reproduction number without complete information about symptom onsets of all cases. Province-level analysis demonstrated the huge success of Chinese control measures on COVID-19, that…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifted due to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in several…
We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears…
In evolutionary game theory, it is customary to be partial to the dynamical models possessing fixed points so that they may be understood as the attainment of evolutionary stability, and hence, Nash equilibrium. Any show of periodic or…
With the continued spread of coronavirus, the task of forecasting distinctive COVID-19 growth curves in different cities, which remain inadequately explained by standard epidemiological models, is critical for medical supply and treatment.…
The infectious coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a serious global pandemic. Different studies have shown that increasing temperature can play a crucial role in the spread of the virus. Most of these studies were limited to…
A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked very early in comparison to the thresholds predicted by an analysis of prior lockdown regimes. The most convenient explanation is that some, external factor changed the value of the basic reproduction number,…
The SIR pandemic model suffers from an unrealistic assumption: The rate of removal from the infectious class of individuals is assumed to be proportional to the number of infectious individuals. This means that a change in the rate of…
We propose an SEIARD mathematical model to investigate the current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Mexico. We conduct a detailed analysis of this model and demonstrate its application using publicly reported data. We calculate…
There were 27 novel coronavirus pneumonia cases found in Wuhan, China in December 2019, named as 2019-nCoV temporarily and COVID-19 formally by WHO on 11 February, 2020. In December 2019 and January 2020, COVID-19 has spread in large scale…
This paper provides a mathematical model to show that the incorrect estimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, can account for much of the world's failure to contain the pandemic in its early…
Synchronization, cooperation, and chaos are ubiquitous phenomena in nature. In a population composed of many distinct groups of individuals playing the prisoner's dilemma game, there exists a migration dilemma: No cooperator would migrate…
Discrete-time replicator map is a prototype of evolutionary selection game dynamical models that have been very successful across disciplines in rendering insights into the attainment of the equilibrium outcomes, like the Nash equilibrium…
In this study, we formulate a mathematical model incorporating age specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to evaluate the role of vaccination and treatment strategies in reducing the size of COVID-19 burden. Initially, we establish the…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the…