种群与进化
Mutating variants of COVID-19 have been reported across many US states since 2021. In the fight against COVID-19, it has become imperative to study the heterogeneity in the time-varying transmission rates for each variant in the presence of…
We present a unified framework for modelling genomes and their rearrangements in a genome algebra, as elements that simultaneously incorporate all physical symmetries. Building on previous work utilising the group algebra of the symmetric…
Mathematical models are increasing adopted for setting targets for disease prevention and control. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of…
In this work we derive new analytic expressions for fixation time in Wright-Fisher model with selection. The three standard cases for fixation are considered: fixation to zero, to one or both. Second order differential equations for…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
Disease outbreaks affect many ecosystems threatening species that also fight against other natural enemies. We investigate a cyclic game system with $5$ species, whose organisms outcompete according to the rules of a generalised spatial…
Almost every country in the world is battling to limit the spread of COVID-19. As the world strives to get an effective medication to control the disease, appropriate intervention measures, for now, remains one of the effective methods to…
Although lessons have been learned from previous severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreaks, the rapid evolution of the viruses means that future outbreaks of a much larger scale are…
In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…
The tragedy of the commons (TOC) is a ubiquitous social dilemma witnessed in interactions between a population of living entities and shared resources available to them: The individuals in the population tend to selfishly overexploit a…
Population decline is projected to become widespread in Europe, with the continental population set to reverse its longstanding trajectory of growth within the next five years. This represents unfamiliar demographic territory. Despite this,…
Population-level scaling in ecological systems arises from individual growth and death with competitive constraints. We build on a minimal dynamical model of metabolic growth where the tension between individual growth and mortality…
Our paper presents three new classes of models: SIR-PH, SIR-PH-FA, and SIR-PH-IA, and states two problems we would like to solve about them. Recall that deterministic mathematical epidemiology has one basic general law, the R0 alternative"…
Inference of species networks from genomic data under the Network Multispecies Coalescent Model is currently severely limited by heavy computational demands. It also remains unclear how complicated networks can be for consistent inference…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
We study a SEIR model considered by Gomes et al. \cite{Gomes2020} and Aguas et al. \cite{Aguas2020} where different individuals are assumed to have different levels of susceptibility or exposure to infection. Under this heterogeneity…
After more than 6 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence…
The algebraic properties of flattenings and subflattenings provide direct methods for identifying edges in the true phylogeny -- and by extension the complete tree -- using pattern counts from a sequence alignment. The relatively small…
In this paper we create a compartmental, stochastic process model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, where the process's mean and variance have distinct dynamics. The model is fit to time series data from Washington from January 2020 to March 2021…
Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the…