大气与海洋物理

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as…

Most useful weather prediction for the public is near the surface. The processes that are most relevant for near-surface weather prediction are also those that are most interactive and exhibit positive feedback or have key role in energy…

Skilful Machine Learned weather forecasts have challenged our approach to numerical weather prediction, demonstrating competitive performance compared to traditional physics-based approaches. Data-driven systems have been trained to…

The equations governing the radiation balance are discussed and exactly solved for the model of the semi-gray atmosphere, i.e. an atmosphere that has regions of transparant frequencies and regions with the same absorption coefficient.

In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an…

Walter Munk's classical work, known as the "abyssal recipes", introduced a foundational framework for comprehending the upwelling of abyssal waters. While it has spurred numerous investigations into the complexities of deep-ocean processes…

This study focuses on the validation of high-resolution regional reanalyses to understand their effectiveness in reproducing precipitation patterns over Italy, a climate change hotspot characterized by coastal sea-land interaction and…

Machine learning (ML) techniques, especially neural networks (NNs), have shown promise in learning subgrid-scale parameterizations for climate models. However, a major problem with data-driven parameterizations, particularly those learned…

ERA5 data for the period of 1979-2019 are used as a basis for investigating the properties of gravity waves as they disperse and propagate upward through the stratosphere during opposing phases of the QBO. Two-sided zonal…

There are different strategies for training neural networks (NNs) as subgrid-scale parameterizations. Here, we use a 1D model of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as testbeds. A 12-layer…

The microseismic motion, ambient ground vibration caused by ocean waves, affects ground-based gravitational wave detectors. In this study, characteristics of the ocean waves including seasonal variations and correlation coefficients were…

The paper has been suggested by two observations: 1) the atmospheric CO$_2$ growth rate is smaller than that ascribed to the emission of fossil fuels combustion, 2) the fossil fuel reserves are finite. The first observation has lead the way…

This paper describes stratospheric waves in ERA5 reanalysis and evaluates the contributions of different types of waves to the driving of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Because of its higher spatial resolution compared to its…

The question to what extent climate change is responsible for extreme weather events has been at the forefront of public and scholarly discussion for years. Proponents of the "risk-based" approach to attribution attempt to give an…

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather…

The horizontal grid spacing of numerical weather prediction models keeps decreasing towards the hectometric range. We perform limited-area simulations with the ICON model across horizontal grid spacings (1 km, 500 m, 250 m, 125 m) in the…

In large lakes, ice cover plays an important role in shipping and navigation, coastal erosion, regional weather and climate, and aquatic ecosystem function. In this study, a novel deep learning model for ice cover concentration prediction…

We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…

The paper continues to study the long-standing problem of quasi 1-D (one dimensional) spectrum of sea surface wave turbulence. The study is based on Hasselmann's kinetic equation, which significantly simplifies for the quasi 1-D turbulence.…

An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does…