大气与海洋物理
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
Detection and attribution (D&A) studies are cornerstones of climate science, providing crucial evidence for policy decisions. Their goal is to link observed climate change patterns to anthropogenic and natural drivers via the optimal…
Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estimate the probability of weather events by…
We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no…
The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods…
$^{7}Be$ an isotope emanating from cosmogenic origins due to high energy cosmic rays, is studied from its production to its detection in the surface, in order to elucidate atmospheric circulation phenomena and analyze the vertical transport…
A 200-member ensemble developed at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes based on the Weather Research and Forecast atmospheric model tailored for the prediction of atmospheric rivers and associated heavy-to-extreme…
Advances in data assimilation (DA) methods have greatly improved the accuracy of Earth system predictions. To fuse multi-source data and reconstruct the nonlinear evolution missing from observations, geoscientists are developing…
Machine-learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high-resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation.…
Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8$^\circ$…
Oceanic eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is a key quantity for measuring the intensity of mesoscale eddies and for parameterizing eddy effects in ocean climate models. Three decades of satellite altimetry observations allow a global assessment of…
Air quality is a prevalent concern due to its imposing health risks. The state of Utah, USA, has, at times over the last 20 years, experienced some of the worst air quality in the nation. The propensity for Utah to experience elevated…
This study evaluates the performance of the area-based, district heatwave forecasts that drive the Australian heatwave warning service. The analysis involves using a recently developed approach of scoring multicategorical forecasts using…
Accurate weather forecasting is essential for socioeconomic activities. While data-driven forecasting demonstrates superior predictive capabilities over traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with reduced computational demands, its…
Because of the rudimentary reporting methods and general lack of documentation, the creation of a severe weather database within the Philippines has been difficult yet relevant target for climatology purposes and historical interest.…
To decarbonise the electricity sector and achieve renewable energy targets, a rapidly growing number of wind farms have been authorised, constructed, and commissioned in the UK and EU in recent years. For instance, the UK Government aims to…
The paper discusses a variant of the local similarity theory, employing the second moment of vertical velocity and the "spectral" Prandtl mixing length as basic parameters. This approach allows expressing the turbulent exchange coefficient,…
The results of simultaneous measurements of noctilucent clouds (NLC) position in a number of ground-based locations are presented. Observational data of 14 bright NLC events over 5 years is used for building the altitude maps of cloud…