大气与海洋物理
Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are characterized by wind-triggered upwelling of deep waters along the coast. They are hotspots of biological productivity and diversity and therefore have a high economic, ecological and social…
Given recent increases in ocean water levels brought on by climate change, this investigation decomposed changes in coastal water levels into its fundamental components to predict maximum water levels for a given coastal location. The study…
Atmospheric blocking exerts a profound influence on mid-latitude circulation, yet its predictability remains elusive due to intrinsic non-linearities and sensitivity to initial-conditions. While blocking dynamics have been extensively…
The continuous improvement in weather forecast skill over the past several decades is largely due to the increasing quantity of available satellite observations and their assimilation into operational forecast systems. Assimilating these…
Self-aggregation of tropical convection is a universal feature observed in a diverse range of atmospheric environments. Several preceding models conceptualized the self-aggregation of convection as a phase transition driven by collisions…
Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in skill. However, these have…
Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…
4D-variational data assimilation is applied to the Lorenz '63 model to introduce a new method for parameter estimation in chaotic climate models. The approach aims to optimise an Earth system model (ESM), for which no adjoint exists, by…
Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological…
Reduced order modeling (ROM) aims to mitigate computational complexity by reducing the size of a high-dimensional state space. In this study, we demonstrate the efficiency, accuracy, and stability of proper orthogonal decomposition…
This study proposes a theory of unsupervised super-resolution data assimilation (SRDA) using conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs). We derive an evidence lower bound for unsupervised learning, showing that our theory is an extension…
Machine learning is revolutionizing global weather forecasting, with models that efficiently produce highly accurate forecasts. Apart from global forecasting there is also a large value in high-resolution regional weather forecasts,…
The high growth rate of atmospheric CO2 in 2023 was found to be caused by a severe reduction of the global net land carbon sink. Here we update the global CO2 budget from January 1st to July 1st 2024, during which El Ni\~no drought…
Global artificial intelligence (AI) models are rapidly advancing and beginning to outperform traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models across metrics, yet predicting regional extreme weather such as tropical cyclone (TC)…
In our previous paper "No experimental evidence for the significant anthropogenic climate change" we had a reference to this paper. Thus, we have presented a new theory: how Henry's Law regulates the concentration of CO$_2$ in the…
\textit{In situ} observations of transbasin deep ocean transports at $26^\circ$N show variability on monthly to decadal timescales (2004--2015). Satellite-based estimates of ocean bottom pressure from the Gravity Recovery and Climate…
Earth Global and regional effective thermal "conductance" G(eff) (in W/(m^2 C) and often labeled lambda in climate research) and the related Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) are evaluated by applying a modified version of the Energy…
Human induced changes in atmospheric aerosols have introduced a climate forcing by modifying cloud droplet number concentration, liquid water, and cloud fraction. This forcing is subject to large uncertainties as cloud adjustments have not…
The global ocean meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is central for ocean transport and climate variations. However, a comprehensive picture of its historical mean state and variability remains vague due to limitations in modelling…
This paper extends the theoretical Euler-Poincar\'e framework for modelling ocean mixed layer dynamics. Through a symmetry-broken Lie group invariant variational principle, we derive a generalised Green-Naghdi equation with time dependent…