大气与海洋物理
In the present work, we investigate the potential of fractional derivatives to model atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. We propose simple fractional differential equation models for the steady state spatial distribution of concentration…
A traditional approach to the analysis of mode coupling in a fluctuating underwater waveguide is based on solving the system of coupled equations for the second statistical moments of mode amplitudes derived in the Markov approximation…
Arctic sea ice extent has declined continuously for the past decade, owing partially to light absorption by black carbon (BC) and other impurities deposited on snow and the underlying pack. We present simulations for the contemporary period…
First results of multi-wavelength measurements of the twilight sky background using all-sky camera with RGB-color CCD conducted in spring and summer of 2016 in central Russia (55.2 deg N, 37.5 deg E) are discussed. They show the effect of…
The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…
This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…
Melott et al. [2016] suggest that individual solar proton events (SPEs) are detectable as nitrate ion spikes in ice cores. They use the high fluence, high energy (hard spectrum) SPE of 23 February 1956 to calculate an enhancement of HNO3…
We use an extensive NOAA database of hourly precipitation data from 5995 stations in the 48 contiguous United States over the period 1949--2009 to investigate possible trends in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, defined…
Recent surveys of marine plastic debris density have revealed high levels in the center of the subtropical gyres. Earlier studies have argued that the formation of great garbage patches is due to Ekman convergence in such regions. In this…
This study examines the impact that solar activity has on model results during geomagnetic quiet time for the ionosphere/thermosphere models: the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model (CTIPe) and the…
The issue of the equilibrium-range formation in the wind-wave spectrum is studied by a direct numerical simulation. The evolution equation of wind-wave spectrum is numerically solved with using an exact calculation of the Hasselmann kinetic…
A stochastic subgrid-scale parameterization based on the Ruelle's response theory and proposed in Wouters and Lucarini [2012] is tested in the context of a low-order coupled ocean-atmosphere model for which a part of the atmospheric modes…
Marine stratocumulus cloud decks are regarded as the reflectors of the climate system, returning back to space a significant part of the income solar radiation, thus cooling the atmosphere. Such clouds can exist in two stable modes, open…
The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the…
Volumetric sediment concentrations computed by phase-resolving swash morphodynamic models are shown to exceed unity minus porosity (i.e. the maximal physically possible concentration value) by up to factor of $10^5$ when using standard…
It has been recently claimed (Zolotova and Ponyavin, Solar Phys., 291, 2869, 2016, ZP16 henceforth) that a mid-latitude optical phenomenon, which took place over the city of Astrakhan in July 1670, according to Russian chronicles, was a…
The default SBU-YLIN scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is proved having a limited capability of producing a reasonable cold pool in squall line simulations. With the help of wealthy observation data of a squall line, we…
The incidence of widespread low-wind conditions is important to the reliability and economics of electric grids with large amounts of wind power. In order to investigate a future in which wind plants are geographically widespread but…
We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev.…
In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations…