综合经济学
Building on the idea that lack of experience is a source of errors but that experience should reduce them, we model agents' behavior using a stochastic choice model (logit quantal response), leaving endogenous the accuracy of their choices.…
Dynasties have long dominated Philippine politics. Despite the theoretical consensus that dynastic rule erodes democratic accountability, there is limited empirical evidence establishing dynasties' true impact on development. A key…
We use the fertile ground of betting markets to study the anticipation of major news in financial markets. While there is a considerable body of literature on the accuracy and efficiency of betting markets after important in-match events,…
I study the impact of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea's heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973--1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use…
This paper explores an innovative financial concept--Academic Research Output Futures (AROFs)--which aim to bring the tools of market-based finance into the realm of academic research. At the heart of this idea lies a cash-settled futures…
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on Ethereum has undergone significant transformations since its emergence during the DeFi summer of 2020. With the introduction of Proof of Stake (PoS) and Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS), the transaction…
This paper introduces Experiential Matrix Theory (EMT), a general theory of growth, employment, and technological change for the age of artificial intelligence (AI). EMT redefines utility as the alignment between production and an evolving,…
How much does luck matter to a criminal defendant in a jury trial? We use rich data on jury selection to causally estimate how parties who are randomly assigned a less favorable jury (as proxied by whether their attorneys exhaust their…
This paper examines the impact of managers' non-responses (NORs) during quarterly earnings calls on analyst forecast behavior by developing a novel measure of NORs using two large language models: ChatGPT-4 and LLaMA 3.3. We adopt a three…
The intensification of European agriculture, characterized by increasing farm sizes, landscape simplification and reliance on synthetic pesticides, remains a key driver of biodiversity decline. While many studies have investigated this…
People in the real world often possess vague knowledge of future payoffs, for which quantification is not feasible or desirable. We argue that language, with differing ability to convey vague information, plays an important but less-known…
Purpose: How much to invest in research facilities has long been a question in higher education and research policy. We present established and recently developed techniques for assessing the quantitative value created or received as a…
Climate neutrality paradigms put electricity systems at the core of a clean energy supply. At the same time, indirect electrification, with a potential uptake of hydrogen or derived fuel economy, plays a crucial role in decarbonising the…
Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from…
Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournaments, online crowd-prediction platforms have never been…
The impact of international tourism on biodiversity risks has received considerable attention, yet quantitative research in this field remains relatively limited. This study constructs a biodiversity risk index for 155 countries and regions…
This research study examined how the number of reviews, review scores product involvement, and product review valence affect consumers' shopping decisions. Specifically, two online experiments were conducted to examine how product review…
The given paper emphasizes the importance of the Railway Silk Road for promoting Georgia's economic growth and development. The article notes that economic integration in the region increases cargo turnover in Central Asia and the Caucasus,…
The literature documents the effects of the pandemic on birthrate, birthweight, and pregnancy complications. This study contributes to this growing body of research by examining multiple facets of the phenomenon. Using the 2012-2022…
Recent literature reports mixed evidence on whether birthweight has decreased during the pandemic. In this paper, we use New York's hospital inpatient discharge data and contribute to this ongoing debate in multiple ways. First, we…