计量经济学

We revisit classical asymptotics when testing for a structural break in linear regression models by obtaining the limit theory of residual-based and Wald-type processes. First, we establish the Brownian bridge limiting distribution of these…

This paper considers identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) when untreated potential outcomes are generated by an interactive fixed effects model. That is, in addition to time-period and individual…

We propose an observation-driven time-varying SVAR model where, in agreement with the Lucas Critique, structural shocks drive both the evolution of the macro variables and the dynamics of the VAR parameters. Contrary to existing approaches…

Policy makers typically face the problem of wanting to estimate the long-term effects of novel treatments, while only having historical data of older treatment options. We assume access to a long-term dataset where only past treatments were…

We use machine learning techniques to investigate whether it is possible to replicate the behavior of bank managers who assess the risk of commercial loans made by a large commercial US bank. Even though a typical bank already relies on an…

Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multi-country datasets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this paper, we develop fast…

Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the use of stress tests as a tool for assessing the resilience of financial institutions to adverse financial and economic developments has increased significantly. One key part in such exercises is…

This article proposes an estimation method to detect breakpoints for linear time series models with their parameters that jump scarcely. Its basic idea owes the group LASSO (group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). The method…

Standard methods, such as sequential procedures based on Johansen's (pseudo-)likelihood ratio (PLR) test, for determining the co-integration rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system of variables integrated of order one can be…

Standard high-dimensional factor models assume that the comovements in a large set of variables could be modeled using a small number of latent factors that affect all variables. In many relevant applications in economics and finance,…

We first revisit the problem of estimating the spot volatility of an It\^o semimartingale using a kernel estimator. We prove a Central Limit Theorem with optimal convergence rate for a general two-sided kernel. Next, we introduce a new…

This paper studies the estimation of causal parameters in the generalized local average treatment effect (GLATE) model, a generalization of the classical LATE model encompassing multi-valued treatment and instrument. We derive the efficient…

Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than a decade. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems is that of estimation of the quadratic…

We develop and justify methodology to consistently test for long-horizon return predictability based on realized variance. To accomplish this, we propose a parametric transaction-level model for the continuous-time log price process based…

Volatilities, in high-dimensional panels of economic time series with a dynamic factor structure on the levels or returns, typically also admit a dynamic factor decomposition. We consider a two-stage dynamic factor model method recovering…

The decisions of whether and how to evacuate during a climate disaster are influenced by a wide range of factors, including sociodemographics, emergency messaging, and social influence. Further complexity is introduced when multiple hazards…

Economists are blessed with a wealth of data for analysis, but more often than not, values in some entries of the data matrix are missing. Various methods have been proposed to handle missing observations in a few variables. We exploit the…

Limited datasets and complex nonlinear relationships are among the challenges that may emerge when applying econometrics to macroeconomic problems. This research proposes deep learning as an approach to transfer learning in the former case…

Time series that display periodicity can be described with a Fourier expansion. In a similar vein, a recently developed formalism enables description of growth patterns with the optimal number of parameters (Elitzur et al, 2020). The method…

Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…