计量经济学

We theoretically analyze the problem of testing for $p$-hacking based on distributions of $p$-values across multiple studies. We provide general results for when such distributions have testable restrictions (are non-increasing) under the…

The existing theory of penalized quantile regression for longitudinal data has focused primarily on point estimation. In this work, we investigate statistical inference. We propose a wild residual bootstrap procedure and show that it is…

Methods for cluster-robust inference are routinely used in economics and many other disciplines. However, it is only recently that theoretical foundations for the use of these methods in many empirically relevant situations have been…

In non-linear estimations, it is common to assess sampling uncertainty by bootstrap inference. For complex models, this can be computationally intensive. This paper combines optimization with resampling: turning stochastic optimization into…

There are many kinds of exogeneity assumptions. How should researchers choose among them? When exogeneity is imposed on an unobservable like a potential outcome, we argue that the form of exogeneity should be chosen based on the kind of…

We study regression discontinuity designs in which many predetermined covariates, possibly much more than the number of observations, can be used to increase the precision of treatment effect estimates. We consider a two-step estimator…

Crawford's et al. (2021) article on estimation of discrete choice models with unobserved or latent consideration sets, presents a unified framework to address the problem in practice by using "sufficient sets", defined as a combination of…

This paper assesses the effects of greenhouse gas emissions drivers in EU-27 over the period 2010-2019, using a Panel EGLS model with period fixed effects. In particular, we focused our research on studying the effects of GDP, renewable…

We examine identification of differentiated products demand when one has "micro data" linking individual consumers' characteristics and choices. Our model nests standard specifications featuring rich observed and unobserved consumer…

We consider identification of peer effects under peer group miss-specification. Two leading cases are missing data and peer group uncertainty. Missing data can take the form of some individuals being entirely absent from the data. The…

This study presents a systematic comparison of methods for individual treatment assignment, a general problem that arises in many applications and has received significant attention from economists, computer scientists, and social…

This paper aims at shedding light upon how transforming or detrending a series can substantially impact predictions of mixed causal-noncausal (MAR) models, namely dynamic processes that depend not only on their lags but also on their leads.…

This paper introduces a flexible local projection that generalizes the model by Jord\'a (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Monte Carlo experiments show that our BART-LP model is able to capture…

I show that Holston, Laubach and Williams' (2017) implementation of Median Unbiased Estimation (MUE) cannot recover the signal-to-noise ratio of interest from their Stage 2 model. Moreover, their implementation of the structural break…

This work concerns the estimation of recursive route choice models in the situation that the trip observations are incomplete, i.e., there are unconnected links (or nodes) in the observations. A direct approach to handle this issue would be…

We study linear peer effects models where peers interact in groups, individual's outcomes are linear in the group mean outcome and characteristics, and group effects are random. Our specification is motivated by the moment conditions…

This paper studies the implication of a fraction of the population not responding to the instrument when selecting into treatment. We show that, in general, the presence of non-responders biases the Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) curve and…

Classical two-sample permutation tests for equality of distributions have exact size in finite samples, but they fail to control size for testing equality of parameters that summarize each distribution. This paper proposes permutation tests…

Fixed effect estimators of nonlinear panel data models suffer from the incidental parameter problem. This leads to two undesirable consequences in applied research: (1) point estimates are subject to large biases, and (2) confidence…

This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this…