Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries
统计力学
2007-05-23 v1
摘要
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.
引用
@article{arxiv.cond-mat/0204306,
title = {Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries},
author = {Dietrich Stauffer},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:cond-mat/0204306},
year = {2007}
}
备注
Not only a contribution to the German federal elections; 5 pages incl.figs