两种登革热病毒血清型的共存及对马德拉岛的预测
种群与进化
2015-11-20 v1 最优化与控制
摘要
马德拉岛于2012年首次爆发登革热，涉及一种病毒血清型。埃及伊蚊是该疾病的传播媒介，且不太可能从岛上被根除。因此，可能发生新的登革热疫情，并且如果发生，当两种血清型共存时，对人群的风险会增加。本文通过数学建模和数值模拟，预测在这种情景下马德拉岛可能发生的情况。
引用
@article{arxiv.1507.04055,
title = {Coexistence of two dengue virus serotypes and forecasting for Madeira island},
author = {Filipa Portugal Rocha and Helena Sofia Rodrigues and M. Teresa T. Monteiro and Delfim F. M. Torres},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1507.04055},
year = {2015}
}
备注
This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form is in 'Operations Research For Health Care', ISSN 2211-6923. Paper submitted 21/Nov/2014; revised 17/May/2015 and 07/Jul/2015; accepted for publication 14/Jul/2015