Are Financial Crashes Predictable?
统计力学
2009-10-31 v1 统计金融
摘要
We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.
引用
@article{arxiv.cond-mat/9804111,
title = {Are Financial Crashes Predictable?},
author = {Laurent Laloux and Marc Potters and Rama Cont and Jean-Pierre Aguilar and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:cond-mat/9804111},
year = {2009}
}
备注
LaTeX, 5 pages + 1 postscript figure