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The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 Ingve Simonsen , Peter Toke Heden Ahlgren , Mogens H. Jensen , Raul Donangelo , Kim Sneppen

In this study, we introduce new estimation methods for the required rate of returns on equity and liabilities of private and public companies using the stochastic dividend discount model (DDM). To estimate the required rate of return on…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-09 Battulga Gankhuu

Consider an insurance company exposed to a stochastic economic environment that contains two kinds of risk. The first kind is the insurance risk caused by traditional insurance claims, and the second kind is the financial risk resulting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-29 Jinzhu Li , Qihe Tang

Prudent management of insurance investment portfolios requires competent asset pricing of fixed-income assets with time-to-event contingent cash flows, such as consumer asset-backed securities (ABS). Current market pricing techniques for…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-27 Jackson P. Lautier , Vladimir Pozdnyakov , Jun Yan

Classic stochastic volatility models assume volatility is unobservable. We use the Volatility Index: S&P 500 VIX to observe it, to easier fit the model. We apply it to corporate bonds. We fit autoregression for corporate rates and for risk…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-06 Jihyun Park , Andrey Sarantsev

Tensor time series data appears naturally in a lot of fields, including finance and economics. As a major dimension reduction tool, similar to its factor model counterpart, the idiosyncratic components of a tensor time series factor model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 Weilin Chen , Clifford Lam

Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of those states as used by investors. To better understand the challenge in distinguishing investors' beliefs from…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-10-06 Jaroslav Borovička , Lars Peter Hansen , José A. Scheinkman

This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a num\'eraire. It is shown that the presence of arbitrarily small…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-01 Nikolai Dokuchaev

Actuaries use predictive modeling techniques to assess the loss cost on a contract as a function of observable risk characteristics. State-of-the-art statistical and machine learning methods are not well equipped to handle hierarchically…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-01 Bavo D. C. Campo , Katrien Antonio

We study market-to-book ratios of stocks in the context of Stochastic Portfolio Theory. Functionally generated portfolios that depend on auxiliary economic variables other than relative capitalizations ("sizes") are developed in two ways,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-09 Donghan Kim

The widespread co-existence of misspecification and weak identification in asset pricing has led to an overstated performance of risk factors. Because the conventional Fama and MacBeth (1973) methodology is jeopardized by misspecification…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-29 Frank Kleibergen , Zhaoguo Zhan

We consider that the price of a firm follows a non linear stochastic delay differential equation. We also assume that any claim value whose value depends on firm value and time follows a non linear stochastic delay differential equation.…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-31 Elisabeth Kemajou , Salah-Eldin Mohammed , Antoine Tambue

Stochastic dividend discount models (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998, Yao, 1997) present expressions for the expected value of stock prices when future dividends evolve according to some random scheme. In this paper we try to offer a more…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-11-04 Arianna Agosto , Enrico Moretto

Despite the popularity of sparse factor models, little attention has been given to formally address identifiability of these models beyond standard rotation-based identification such as the positive lower triangular constraint. To fill this…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-13 Sylvia Fruehwirth-Schnatter , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

We propose a model which can be jointly calibrated to the corporate bond term structure and equity option volatility surface of the same company. Our purpose is to obtain explicit bond and equity option pricing formulas that can be…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-09-21 Erhan Bayraktar , Bo Yang

We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-05 Carol Alexander , Johannes Rauch

In dealing with high-dimensional data sets, factor models are often useful for dimension reduction. The estimation of factor models has been actively studied in various fields. In the first part of this paper, we present a new approach to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-11-27 Joongyeub Yeo , George Papanicolaou

In this paper, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Xinbing Kong , Bin Wu , Wuyi Ye

We consider a general one-factor short rate model, in which the instantaneous interest rate is driven by a univariate diffusion with time independent drift and volatility. We construct recursive formula for the coefficients of the Taylor…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-26 Beata Stehlikova

This paper develops estimation and inference methods for conditional quantile factor models. We first introduce a simple sieve estimation, and establish asymptotic properties of the estimators under large $N$. We then provide a bootstrap…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-21 Qihui Chen
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