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This study provides a solution of the equity premium puzzle. Questioning the validity of the Arrow-Pratt measure of relative risk aversion for detecting the risk behavior of investors under all conditions, a new tool, that is, the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-01-27 Atilla Aras

We propose a unified framework for equity and credit risk modeling, where the default time is a doubly stochastic random time with intensity driven by an underlying affine factor process. This approach allows for flexible interactions…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-19 Claudio Fontana , Juan Miguel A. Montes

Sparsity or complexity? In modern high-dimensional asset pricing, these are often viewed as competing principles: richer feature spaces appear to favor complexity, while economic intuition has long favored parsimony. We show that this…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-21 Nima Afsharhajari , Jonathan Yu-Meng Li

This paper extends the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor introduced and studied by Alvarez and Jermann (2005) in discretetime ergodic environments and by Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) and Hansen (2012) in Markovian…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-05 Likuan Qin , Vadim Linetsky

We address challenges in variable selection with highly correlated data that are frequently present in finance, economics, but also in complex natural systems as e.g. weather. We develop a robustified version of the knockoff framework,…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-14 Konstantin Görgen , Abdolreza Nazemi , Melanie Schienle

We show that the higher-order terms and interactions of the common sparse linear factors are significantly priced in the cross-section of equity returns. A higher-order model with only a small number of selected higher-order terms from six…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-25 Nicola Borri , Denis Chetverikov , Yukun Liu , Aleh Tsyvinski

Deep learning searches for nonlinear factors for predicting asset returns. Predictability is achieved via multiple layers of composite factors as opposed to additive ones. Viewed in this way, asset pricing studies can be revisited using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-27 Guanhao Feng , Jingyu He , Nicholas G. Polson

In this paper incomplete-information models are developed for the pricing of securities in a stochastic interest rate setting. In particular we consider credit-risky assets that may include random recovery upon default. The market…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-06-04 Andrea Macrina , Priyanka A. Parbhoo

Dividend discount models have been developed in a deterministic setting. Some authors (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998; Yao, 1997) have introduced randomness in terms of stochastic growth rates, delivering closed-form expressions for the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-24 Arianna Agosto , Alessandra Mainini , Enrico Moretto

We build a 167-indicator comprehensive credit risk indicator set, integrating macro, corporate financial, bond-specific indicators, and for the first time, 30 large-scale corporate non-financial indicators. We use seven machine learning…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-24 Yanran Wu , Xinlei Zhang , Quanyi Xu , Qianxin Yang , Chao Zhang

I develop a feasible weighted projected principal component (FPPC) analysis for factor models in which observable characteristics partially explain the latent factors. This novel method provides more efficient and accurate estimators than…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-23 Sung Hoon Choi

We extend the now classic structural credit modeling approach of Black and Cox to a class of "two-factor" models that unify equity securities such as options written on the stock price, and credit products like bonds and credit default…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-10-27 Thomas R. Hurd , Zhuowei Zhou

We consider a two-factor model for the valuation of a non callable defaultable bond which pays coupons at certain given dates. The model under consideration is the Jump to Default Constant Elasticity of Variance (JDCEV) model. The JDCEV…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-06 M. C. Calvo-Garrido , S. Diop , A. Pascucci , C. Vázquez

Searching for new effective risk factors on stock returns is an important research topic in asset pricing. Factor modeling is an active research topic in statistics and econometrics, with many new advances. However, these new methods have…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-27 Xialu Liu , John Guerard , Rong Chen , Ruey Tsay

Budget feasible mechanism design studies procurement combinatorial auctions where the sellers have private costs to produce items, and the buyer(auctioneer) aims to maximize a social valuation function on subsets of items, under the budget…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-11-09 Xiaohui Bei , Ning Chen , Nick Gravin , Pinyan Lu

A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-07 Meng-Jou Lu , Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

We present a new model for commodity pricing that enhances accuracy by integrating four distinct risk factors: spot price, stochastic volatility, convenience yield, and stochastic interest rates. While the influence of these four variables…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-28 Luca Vincenzo Ballestra , Christian Tezza

We examine machine learning and factor-based portfolio optimization. We find that factors based on autoencoder neural networks exhibit a weaker relationship with commonly used characteristic-sorted portfolios than popular dimensionality…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-30 Thomas Conlon , John Cotter , Iason Kynigakis

We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-07 Gregor Kastner

We consider a statistical model for matrix factorization in a regime where the rank of the two hidden matrix factors grows linearly with their dimension and their product is corrupted by additive noise. Despite various approaches,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Farzad Pourkamali , Nicolas Macris