Related papers: Business Cycles explained by Instability
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of…
The stability of the inflation rate is a necessary condition for the proper functioning of any capitalist economy. In an economic environment with volatile inflation, the growth of the economy and its distribution among the agents of…
Models that explain the economical and political realities of nowadays societies should help all the world's citizens. Yet, the last four years showed that the current models are missing. Here we develop a dynamical society-deciders model…
The central problems of Development Economics are the explanation of the gross disparities in the global distribution, $\cal{D}$, of economic performance, $\cal{E}$, and the persistence, $\cal{P}$, of said distribution. Douglass North…
The Cyclic Model attempts to resolve the homogeneity, isotropy, and flatness problems and generate a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of fluctuations during a period of slow contraction that precedes a bounce to an expanding phase. Here we…
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japan's experience during the 1990's changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest…
We define a financial bubble as a period of unsustainable growth, when the price of an asset increases ever more quickly, in a series of accelerating phases of corrections and rebounds. More technically, during a bubble phase, the price…
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired…
For applications of machine learning in critical decisions, explainability is a primary concern, and often a regulatory requirement. Local linear methods for generating explanations, such as LIME and SHAP, have been criticized for being…
This paper develops a dynamic monetary model to study the (in)stability of the fractional reserve banking system. The model shows that the fractional reserve banking system can endanger stability in that equilibrium is more prone to exhibit…
A well-known model due to J.-M. Lasry and P.L. Lions that presents the evolution of prices in a market as the evolution of a free boundary in a diffusion equation is suggested to be modified in order to show instabilities for some values of…
Conceptual climate models provide an approach to understanding climate processes through a mathematical analysis of an approximation to reality. Recently, these models have also provided interesting examples of nonsmooth dynamical systems.…
The sustainability conditions for the market participants with a different ownership model were also determined. It was revealed, that the nonlinear form of the equations describing the market behavior with the prevailing private capital,…
This study proposes a new model based on a classic S-curve that describes deployment and stabilization at maximum capacity. In addition, the model extends to the post-growth plateau, where technological capacity is renewed according to the…
The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…
Any economic agent constituting the monetary economy maintains the activity of monetary flow equilibration for fulfilling the condition of monetary flow continuity in the record, except at the central bank. At the same time, monetary flow…
The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary…
How a shock to an individual sector propagates to the prices of other sectors and aggregates to GDP depends on how easily sectoral goods can be substituted in production, which is determined by the intermediate input substitution…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…