Related papers: Business Cycles explained by Instability
Most finance studies are discussed on the basis of several hypotheses, for example, investors rationally optimize their investment strategies. However, the hypotheses themselves are sometimes criticized. Market impacts, where trades of…
In this paper, we present the possibility of using the Ising like models to explain by Statistical Physics means the connection between the financial discontinuities (herd behavior, bubbles, crashes) and "critical points" in physical of…
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries…
Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes…
In complex systems, many different parts interact in non-obvious ways. Traditional research focuses on a few or a single aspect of the problem so as to analyze it with the tools available. To get a better insight of phenomena that emerge…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
Empirical business cycle studies using cross-country data usually cannot achieve causal relationships while within-country studies mostly focus on the bust period. We provide the first causal investigation into the boom period of the…
Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily…
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…
The problem of non-stationarity in financial markets is discussed and related to the dynamic nature of price volatility. A new measure is proposed for estimation of the current asset volatility. A simple and illustrative explanation is…
Is the present economic and financial crisis similar to some previous one? It would be so nice to prove that universality laws exist for predicting such rare events under a minimum set of realistic hypotheses. First, I briefly recall…
We study a class of heterogeneous agent-based models which are based on a basic set of principles, and the most fundamental operations of an economic system: trade and product transformations. A basic guiding principle is scale invariance,…
Current business cycle theory is an application of the general equilibrium theory. This paper presents the business cycle model without using general equilibrium framework. We treat agents risk assessments as their coordinates x on economic…
A step to consilience, starting with a deconstruction of the causality of uncertainty that is embedded in the fundamentals of growth and inequality, following a construction of aggregation laws that disclose the invariance principle across…
It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard…
We present a macro-finance model with innovation and knowledge spillover. Skilled agents engage in R&D activities (establish firms) or work in the knowledge-intensive sector. Unskilled agents work in the traditional sector. Knowledge…
Is a causal description of human wealth history conceivable? To investigate the matter we introduce a simple causal albeit strongly aggregated model, assuming that the observed wealth growth is mainly driven by human collaborative efforts…
The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In…