Related papers: Business Cycles explained by Instability
A simple spin model is studied, motivated by the dynamics of traders in a market where expectation bubbles and crashes occur. The dynamics is governed by interactions which are frustrated across different scales: While ferromagnetic…
In an incomplete continuous-time securities market with uncertainty generated by Brownian motions, we derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium interest rate and market price of risk processes. The economy has a finite number of…
Eternal inflation is a seemingly generic consequence of theories that give rise to accelerated expansion of the universe and possess multiple vacuum states. Making predictions in an eternally inflating universe is notoriously difficult…
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…
This article gives the explicit solution to a general vector time series model that describes interacting, heterogeneous agents that operate under uncertainties but according to Keynesian principles, from which a model for business cycle is…
Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…
A model to describe the spontaneous formation of military and economic coalitions among a group of countries is proposed using spin glass theory. Between each couple of countries, there exists a bond exchange coupling which is either zero,…
We construct a data-driven model of flows in graphs that captures the essential elements of the movement of workers between jobs in the companies (firms) of entire economic systems such as countries. The model is based on the observation…
In this paper, we study two standard (Keynesian) dynamic macroeconomic models (one is piecewise linear and the other is nonlinear). Our purpose is twofold: (1)~For each model, we give a complete characterisation for the existence of a…
In ridesharing platforms such as Uber and Lyft, it is observed that drivers sometimes collaboratively go offline when the price is low, and then return after the price has risen due to the perceived lack of supply. This collective strategy…
We present a new solution for fundamental problems in nonlinear dynamical systems: finding, verifying, and stabilizing cycles. The solution we propose consists of a new control method based on mixing previous states of the system (or the…
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable.…
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
We note a simple mechanism that may at least partially resolve several outstanding economic puzzles, including why the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has been oddly high for the past two decades, why gains…
The seriousness of the current crisis urgently demands new economic thinking that breaks the austerity vs. deficit spending circle in economic policy. The core tenet of the paper is that the most important problems that natural and social…
We consider an inflationary scenario where the rate of inflaton roll defined by $\ddot\phi/H\dot \phi$ remains constant. The rate of roll is small for slow-roll inflation, while a generic rate of roll leads to the interesting case of…
We argue that uncertainty network structures extracted from option prices contain valuable information for business cycles. Classifying U.S. industries according to their contribution to system-related uncertainty across business cycles, we…
In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore…
Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI),…