Related papers: Business Cycles explained by Instability
We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network…
We develop a cosmological model where primordial inflation is driven by a 'solid', defined as a system of three derivatively coupled scalar fields obeying certain symmetries and spontaneously breaking a certain subgroup of these. The…
The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led…
The credit crisis roiling the world's financial markets will likely take years and entire careers to fully understand and analyze. A short empirical investigation of the current trends, however, demonstrates that the losses in certain…
Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around…
We study a model in which two players with opposing interests try to alter a status quo through instability-generating actions. We show that instability can be used to secure longer-term durable changes, even if it is costly to generate and…
Article about objective regularity and mechanisms of formation of network economy in the conditions of crisis of {\guillemotleft}new economy{\guillemotright}. The network economy is considered as a basis of a following business cycle. The…
As we show by using notions of equilibrium in infinite sequential games, crashes or financial escalations are rational for economic or environmental agents, who have a vision of an infinite world. This contradicts a picture of a…
The ubiquity of oscillations in epidemics presents a long standing challenge for the formulation of epidemic models. Whether they are external and seasonally driven, or arise from the intrinsic dynamics is an open problem. It is known that…
There are insights of chaotic properties in economic systems and data. To prove the existence of chaotic dynamics, the establishment of a deterministic model is mandatory. A global modelling tool (GPoM) is used to search for mathematical…
We study the detectability, given CMB polarization maps, of departures from the inflationary consistency equation, r \equiv T/S \simeq -5 n_T, where T and S are the tensor and scalar contributions to the quadrupole variance, respectively.…
Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the Bubble Necessity…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm…
We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated…
The consumer store is ubiquitous and plays an important role in our everyday lives. It is an open question why stores usually have such short life cycles (typically around 3 years in China). This paper proposes a theoretical framework based…
Hierarchical analysis is considered and a multilevel model is presented in order to explore causality, chance and complexity in financial economics. A coupled system of models is used to describe multilevel interactions, consistent with…
Consider a dynamical system given by a planar differential equation, which exhibits an unstable periodic orbit surrounding a stable periodic orbit. It is known that under random perturbations, the distribution of locations where the…
We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…
We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and…
We consider dynamics of financial markets as dynamics of expectations and discuss such a dynamics from the point of view of phenomenological thermodynamics. We describe a financial Carnot cycle and the financial analogue of a heat machine.…