Related papers: Business Cycles explained by Instability
Throughout history, many countries have repeatedly experienced large swings in asset prices, which are usually accompanied by large fluctuations in macroeconomic activity. One of the characteristics of the period before major economic…
In the last decades, the notion that cities are in a state of equilibrium with a centralised organisation has given place to the viewpoint of cities in disequilibrium and organised from bottom to up. In this perspective, cities are evolving…
Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of…
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…
The well-defined but intricate course of time evolution exhibited by many naturally occurring phenomena suggests some source of dynamic order sustaining it. In spite of its obviousness as a problem, it has remained absent from the…
The substantial turmoil created by both 2000 dot-com crash and 2008 subprime crisis has fueled the belief that the two classical paradigms of economics, which are the invisible hand and the rational agent, are not appropriate to describe…
Economic growth is conventionally analyzed at the national level, yet cities generate the bulk of global output. Here we construct GDP trajectories for 8,808 functional urban areas (FUAs) across 165 countries over 1993-2019 using…
Recent developments in the global liberalization of equity and currency markets, coupled to advances in trading technologies, are making markets increasingly interdependent. This increased fluidity raises questions about the stability of…
We propose a dynamical model for business cycle based on an optimal DI model. In the model there exists a conserved quantity, which corresponds to the total energy in a dynamical system. We found that the business cycle with the period 6 or…
We describe the innovations in finances, introduced over the recent decades, and analyze most of the business and regulatory challenges, faced by the financial industry, because of the present disruptive changes in the global capital…
We study the impacts of business cycles on machine learning (ML) predictions. Using the S&P 500 index, we find that ML models perform worse during most recessions, and the inclusion of recession history or the risk-free rate does not…
I will discuss the development of inflationary theory and its present status, as well as some recent attempts to suggest an alternative to inflation. In particular, I will argue that the ekpyrotic scenario in its original form does not…
Why do capitalist economies recurrently generate crises whose severity is disproportionate to the size of the triggering shock? This paper proposes a structural answer grounded in the evolutionary geometry of production networks. As…
Norms of Persistent Homology introduced in topological data analysis are seen as indicators of system instability, analogous to the changing predictability that is captured in financial market uncertainty indexes. This paper demonstrates…
A standard growth model is modified in a straightforward way to incorporate what Keynes (1936) suggests in the "essence" of his general theory. The theoretical essence is the idea that exogenous changes in investment cause changes in…
A symmetry-guided definition of time may enhance and simplify the analysis of historical series with recurrent patterns and seasonalities. By enforcing simple-scaling and stationarity of the distributions of returns, we identify a…
Experiments have not only revealed the remarkably long lifetime of nanobubbles, but also demonstrated the diffusive instability of bubbles above micrometers, thus a full-scale physical understanding on the stability of bubbles is in urgent…
We summarize our work on constant roll inflationary models. It was understood recently that constant roll inflation, in a regime beyond the slow roll approximation, can give models that are in agreement with the observational constraints.…
The existing theorization of development economics and transition economics is probably inadequate and perhaps even flawed to accurately explain and analyze a dual economic system such as that in China. China is a country in the transition…
Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…