Related papers: Business Cycles explained by Instability
We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271--2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output…
The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method.…
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…
Recent theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated.…
We study constant roll inflation systematically. This is a regime, in which the slow roll approximation can be violated. It has long been thought that this approximation is necessary for agreement with observations. However, recently it was…
The Great Recession highlighted the role of financial and uncertainty shocks as drivers of business cycle fluctuations. However, the fact that uncertainty shocks may affect economic activity by tightening financial conditions makes…
Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical…
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This…
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and…
Financial instability has become a significant issue in today's society. While research typically focuses on financial aspects, there is a tendency to overlook time-related aspects of unstable work schedules. The inability to rely on…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…
The monograph is concerned with some key problems of the theory of nonlinear economic dynamics. The authors' concept consists in analyzing the problem of structural instability of economic systems within the framework of the synergetic…
A microscopic approach to macroeconomic features is intended. A model for macroeconomic behavior based on the Ausloos-Clippe-Pekalski model is built and investigated. The influence of a discrete time information transfer is investigated.…
Using the formalism of Lyapunov potential function it is shown that the stability principles for biomass in the ecosystem and for employment in economics are mathematically similar. The ecosystem is found to have a stable and an unstable…
Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…
We provide a comprehensive numerical study of the Emergent Cyclic Inflation scenario. This is a scenario where instead of traditional monotonic slow roll inflation, the universe expands over numerous short asymmetric cycles due to the…
We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…
A general nonlinear logistic equation has been proposed to model long-time saturation in industrial growth. An integral solution of this equation has been derived for any arbitrary degree of nonlinearity. A time scale for the onset of…
Quantum effects derived through conformal anomaly lead to an inflationary model that can be either stable or unstable. The unstable version requires a large dimensionless coefficient of about $5\times 10^8$ in front of the $R^2$ term that…
This paper investigates Minsky's cycles by extending the paper of stockhammer et al. (2019) with a nonlinear model to capture possible local real-financial endogenous cycles. We trace nonlinear regime changes and check the presence of…