Related papers: A Simple Intermediate Coupled MJO-ENSO Model: Mult…
We introduce a simple entropy-based formalism to characterize the role of mixing in pressure-balanced multiphase clouds, and demonstrate example applications using Enzo-E (magneto)hydrodynamic simulations. Under this formalism, the…
The evolution of wind-generated near-inertial waves (NIWs) is known to be influenced by the mesoscale eddy field, yet it remains a challenge to disentangle the effects of this interaction in observations. Here, the model of Young and Ben…
Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
We propose a conceptual model which generates abrupt climate changes akin to Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In the model these abrupt climate changes are not triggered by external perturbations but rather emerge in a dynamic self-consistent…
Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…
Many neuronal systems and models display a certain class of mixed mode oscillations (MMOs) consisting of periods of small amplitude oscillations interspersed with spikes. Various models with different underlying mechanisms have been…
The variability of the zonal-mean large-scale extratropical circulation is often studied using individual modes obtained from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses. The prevailing reduced-order model of the leading EOF (EOF1) of…
Models incorporating delay have been frequently used to understand climate variability phenomena, but often the delay is introduced through an ad-hoc physical reasoning, such as the propagation time of waves. In this paper, the Mori-Zwanzig…
The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method…
A model-based extended state observer (MB-ESO) and its variant are proposed for discrete-time linear multivariable systems, where multiple disturbances are defined as an extended state vector in the same manner as in the original…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been studied using its daily RMM1, RMM2 and VPM1, VPM2 principal components' indices. A spectral analysis of the raw indices indicates presence of a noise presumably contributed by the random…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
A proper description of ocean-atmosphere interactions is key for a correct understanding of climate evolution. The interplay among the different variables acting over the climate is complex, often leading to correlations across long spatial…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts global climate and societal impacts, but real-time prediction with lead times beyond one year remains challenging. Dynamical models suffer from large biases and uncertainties, while deep learning…
The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) are dominant drivers of boreal summer precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical regions. Although the regional precipitation dynamics in these two regions have…
Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…