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The response of a low-frequency mode of climate variability, El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation, to stochastic forcing is studied in a high-dimensional model of intermediate complexity, the fully-coupled Cane-Zebiak model [ZC87], from the…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold…
A quasi-geostrophic intermediate complexity model is considered, providing a schematic representation of the baroclinic conversion processes which characterize the physics of the mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation. The model is relaxed…
Coupled atmosphere-ocean deep learning (DL) climate emulators are a new frontier but are known to exhibit weak ENSO variability, raising questions about their ability to simulate teleconnections. Here, we present the first Pacific pacemaker…
The Global Overturning Circulation (GOC) is a key component of the climate system, transporting heat, carbon, and salt throughout the global ocean. Previous reduced-dimensional models have sought to represent this three-dimensional…
There is a growing interest in the climate community to improve the prediction of high impact climate events, for instance ENSO (El-Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation) or extreme events, using a combination of model and observation data. In this…
Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26 deg S, 66…
The sub-seasonal and synoptic-scale variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall are controlled primarily by monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) and low pressure systems (LPS), respectively. The positive and negative phases of…
Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in…
Interaction between atmospheric mid-latitude flow and wind-driven ocean circulation is studied coupling two idealized low-order spectral models. The barotropic Charney-DeVore model with three components simulates a bimodal mid-latitude…
We use a linear shallow-water model to investigate the global circulation of the atmospheres of tidally locked planets. Simulations, observations, and simple models show that if these planets are sufficiently rapidly rotating, their…
We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW)…
This paper explores the potential of a hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with conventional physics-based modeling for weather prediction beyond the medium range. It extends the work of Arcomano et al. (2022),…
Mixed mode oscillations (MMOs) are complex oscillatory behaviors of multiple-timescale dynamical systems in which there is an alternation of large-amplitude and small-amplitude oscillations. It is well known that MMOs in two-timescale…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
In this paper, we develop and analyze a model that studies the interaction between a specialist predator, a generalist predator, and their common prey in a two-trophic ecosystem featuring three timescales. We assume that the prey operates…
Atmospheric blocking events drive persistent weather extremes in midlatitudes, but isolating the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) from chaotic internal atmospheric variability on these events remains a challenge. We address this…
On average once every four years, the Tropical Pacific warms considerably during events called El Ni\~no, leading to weather disruptions over many regions on Earth. Recent machine-learning approaches to El Ni\~no prediction, in particular…