Related papers: A Simple Intermediate Coupled MJO-ENSO Model: Mult…
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed…
Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized…
Extratropical storms shape midlatitude weather and vary due to the slowly evolving climate and the rapid changes in synoptic conditions. While the influence of each factor has been studied extensively, their relative importance remains…
This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
The NEMO general circulation ocean model is extended to incorporate three physical processes related to ocean surface waves, namely the surface stress (modified by growth and dissipation of the oceanic wave field), the turbulent kinetic…
We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the recent decade (1998-present) as compared to the preceding warming era…
Many record-breaking climate extremes arise from both greenhouse gas-induced warming and natural climate variability. Marine cloud brightening, a solar geoengineering strategy originally proposed to reduce long-term warming, could…
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the precipitation extremes in Indonesia during the rainy season (October to April) has been evaluated using the daily station rain gauge data and the gridded Asian Precipitation Highly…
Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…
I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks during the crop-growing season affect harvest-related conflict in…
The adjoint of an ocean general circulation model is used as a tool for investigating the causes of changes in ENSO SST indices. We identify adjoint Kelvin and Rossby waves in the sensitivities to sea level and wind stress at earlier times,…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Dominant modes of SST in the west and east Pacific show strong but regionally different gradients caused by waves, internal dynamics, and anthropogenic warming, which drives air-sea interaction in the Pacific. The study discusses the…
The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated…
We suggest a way of rationalizing an intra-seasonal oscillations (IOs) of the Earth atmospheric flow as four meteorological relevant triads of interacting planetary waves, isolated from the system of all the rest planetary waves. Our model…
Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep…