The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method to do so combines a classical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average technique with a modern machine learning approach (through an Artificial Neural Network). The attributes in such a neural network are derived from topological properties of Climate Networks and are tested on both a Zebiak-Cane-type model and observations. For predictions up to six months ahead, the results of the hybrid model give a better skill than the CFSv2 ensemble prediction by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Moreover, results for a twelve month lead time prediction have a similar skill as the shorter lead time predictions.
@article{arxiv.1803.10076,
title = {Using Network Theory and Machine Learning to predict El Ni\~no},
author = {Peter D. Nooteboom and Qing Yi Feng and Cristóbal López and Emilio Hernández-García and Henk A. Dijkstra},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1803.10076},
year = {2018}
}