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I examine global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising in one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. A heterogeneous agent based model is set up in which the agents…
Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model…
We discuss, at the macro-level of nations, the contribution of research funding and rate of international collaboration to research performance, with important implications for the science of science policy. In particular, we…
The processes of ecological interactions, dispersal and mutations shape the dynamics of biological communities, and analogous eco-evolutionary processes acting upon economic entities have been proposed to explain economic change. This…
Recent strides in economic complexity have shown that the future economic development of nations can be predicted with a single "economic fitness" variable, which captures countries' competitiveness in international trade. The predictions…
This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…
This study analyzes the impact of military expenditures on sustainable development in NATO countries. The analysis utilizes annual data for the period between 1995 and 2019. In this study, the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test is used…
The paper applies some recent developments of network analysis in order to perform a comparative study of EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries,…
Addressing climate change effectively requires more than cataloguing the number of policies in place; it calls for tools that can reveal their thematic priorities and their tangible impacts on development outcomes. Existing assessments…
Optimization and expansion are two modes of staged evolution of complex systems where macroscopic observables change at a decreasing, respectively increasing, rate. A prime example of evolutionary expansion, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)…
Diversified economies are critical for cities to sustain their growth and development, but they are also costly because diversification often requires expanding a city's capability base. We analyze how cities manage this trade-off by…
This study examines the relationship between globalization and income inequality, utilizing panel data spanning from 1992 to 2020. Globalization is measured by the World Bank global-link indicators such as FDI, Remittance, Trade Openness,…
Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial…
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…
Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…
This paper aims to study the impact of public and private investments on the economic growth of developing countries. The study uses the panel data of 39 developing countries covering the periods 1990-2019. The study was based on the…
Forecasting economic growth of India has been traditionally an uncertain exercise. The indicators and factors affecting economic structures and the variables required to model that captures the situation correctly is point of concern.…
We investigate the emergence of synchronization in a network of coupled chaotic macroeconomic systems. Each node represents an economy characterized by three key variables savings, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign capital inflows.…
Governments sometimes need to analyse sets of research papers within a field in order to monitor progress, assess the effect of recent policy changes, or identify areas of excellence. They may compare the average citation impacts of the…
This paper examines the effects of daily temperature fluctuations on subnational economic growth in Thailand. Using annual gross provincial product (GPP) per capita data from 1982 to 2022 and high-resolution reanalysis weather data, I…