Related papers: Measuring Geopolitical Alignment and Economic Grow…
By borrowing methods from complex system analysis, in this paper we analyze the features of the complex relationship that links the development and the industrialization of a country to economic inequality. In order to do this, we identify…
Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…
Economic growth depends on capital investments and on investments in education and innovation. The model introduced here will specifiy aggregate output as determined by aggregate supply of capital and education investment. After formulating…
The empirical literature on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth has produced highly heterogeneous and often conflicting results. This paper investigates the sources of this heterogeneity using a meta-analytic…
We use natural-language-processing algorithms on a novel dataset of over 900 presidential speeches from ten Latin American countries spanning two centuries to study the dynamics and determinants of presidential policy priorities. We show…
Urban economic vitality is a crucial indicator of a city's long-term growth potential, comprising key metrics such as the annual number of new companies and the population employed. However, modeling urban economic vitality remains…
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in…
The impact of predictive algorithms on people's lives and livelihoods has been noted in medicine, criminal justice, finance, hiring and admissions. Most of these algorithms are developed using data and human capital from highly developed…
We extend the existing growth-at-risk (GaR) literature by examining a long time period of 130 years in a time-varying parameter regression model. We identify several important insights for policymakers. First, both the level as well as the…
Understanding the statistical dynamics of growth and inequality is a fundamental challenge to ecology and society. Recent analyses of wealth and income dynamics in contemporary societies show that economic inequality is very dynamic and…
Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a…
Inclusiveness and economic development have been slowed by the pandemics and military conflicts. This study investigates the main determinants of inclusiveness at the European level. A multi-method approach is used, with Principal Component…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I…
Using the economic complexity methodology on data for disease prevalence in 195 countries during the period of 1990-2016, we propose two new metrics for quantifying the relatedness between diseases, or the `disease space' of countries. With…
This paper proposes a two blocks and three regions economic geography model that can account for the most salient stylized facts experienced by Eastern European transition economies during the period 1990 2005. In contrast to the existing…
International trade has been increasingly organized in the form of global value chains (GVCs) where different stages of production are located in different countries. This recent phenomenon has substantial consequences for both trade policy…
There has been a long-running debate in Information Technology (IT) and economics literature about the contrary arguments of IT concerning digitalization and the economic growth of nations. While many empirical studies have shown a…
The current international landscape is turbulent and unstable, with frequent outbreaks of geopolitical conflicts worldwide. Geopolitical risk has emerged as a significant threat to regional and global peace, stability, and economic…
We study the drivers and spatial diffusion of U.S. state population growth using a dynamic spatial model for 49 states, 1965-2017. Methodologically, we recover the spatial network structure from the data, rather than imposing it a priori…