Related papers: A Stochastic Conceptual Model for the Coupled ENSO…
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…
The impact of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extratropics is investigated in an idealized, reduced-order model that has a tropical and an extratropical module. Unidirectional ENSO forcing is used to mimick the atmospheric…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical atmospheric variability on intraseasonal timescales, and reliable MJO predictions are essential for protecting lives and mitigating impacts on societal assets. However,…
Understanding ENSO dynamics has tremendously improved over the past decades. However, one aspect still poorly understood or represented in conceptual models is the ENSO diversity in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution.…
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a gigantic tropical weather system, is marked by eastward travel of cumulus cloud clusters over the Indo-Pacific region and often causes severe weather and climate events worldwide. The physics and…
The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
There is a growing interest in the climate community to improve the prediction of high impact climate events, for instance ENSO (El-Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation) or extreme events, using a combination of model and observation data. In this…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review two different…
We study the dynamics of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly using a model of the temporal patterns of two sub-regions, mimicking behaviour similar to El Ni\~no Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Specifically, we present the existence,…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches…
The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…
Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…
The intraseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) involves a slow eastward-propagating signal in the tropical atmosphere which significantly influences climate yet is not well understood despite significant theoretical and observational…
We apply a test for low-dimensional, deterministic dynamics to the Nino 3 time series for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The test is negative, indicating that the dynamics is high-dimensional/stochastic. However, application of…
The prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a massive tropical weather event with vast global socio-economic impacts, has been infamously difficult with physics-based weather prediction models. Here we construct a machine…
The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…
A spatiotemporal oscillator model for El Ni\~no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is constructed based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline depth dynamics. The model is enclosed by introducing a proportional relationship between…
The MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Despite its primary importance, a generally accepted theory that accounts for fundamental features of the MJO, including its propagation…