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Paleoclimate proxies reveal abrupt transitions of the North Atlantic climate during past glacial intervals known as Dansgaard--Oeschger (DO) events. A central feature of DO events is a sudden warming of about 10$^{\circ}$C in Greenland…
An adaptive network model using SIS epidemic propagation with link-type dependent link activation and deletion is considered. Bifurcation analysis of the pairwise ODE approximation and the network-based stochastic simulation is carried out,…
Low-latitude rainfall variability on the daily to intraseasonal timescale is often related to tropical waves, including convectively coupled equatorial waves, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and tropical disturbances. Despite the…
In this work, a stochastic representation based on a physical transport principle is proposed to account for mesoscale eddy effects on the large-scale oceanic circulation. This stochastic framework arises from a decomposition of the…
The seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), as well as the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) that strongly modulate MISO, is important to the country for water and crop…
The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…
The fact that the Earth climate is a highly complex dynamical system is well-known. In the last few decades a lot of effort has been focused on understanding how climate phenomena in one geographical region affects the climate of other…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
This study examines the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Indonesian precipitation during the extended boreal summer (May to September). The MJO is one of the dominant intraseasonal variabilities that influence the extreme…
Understanding and predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is fundamental for precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention. To date, long-term and accurate MJO prediction has remained a challenge for researchers. Conventional MJO…
Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of variability in the equatorial stratosphere. It is characterized by alternating descending easterly and westerly jets over a period of approximately 28 months. It has long been…
Recent $daily$ data of the Southern Oscillation Index have been analyzed. The power spectrum indicates major intrinsic geophysical short periods. We find interesting ``high frequency'' oscillations at 24, 27, 37, 76, 100 and 365 days. In…
Previous works have analysed the relationship existing between reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and other climatic variables under a one-at-a-time perturbation condition. However, due to the physical relationships between these climatic…
Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…
The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated…
This article analyzes SST remote forcing on the interannual variability of Sahel summer (June-September) moderate (below 75th percentile) and heavy (above 75th percentile) daily precipitation events during the period 1981-2016. Evidence is…
Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in…