Related papers: A Stochastic Conceptual Model for the Coupled ENSO…
The southern oscillation index (SOI) is a characteristic of the El Nino phenomenon. SOI monthly averaged data is analyzed for the time interval 1866-2000. The tail of the cumulative distribution of the fluctuations of SOI signal is studied…
I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks during the crop-growing season affect harvest-related conflict in…
We introduce a simple entropy-based formalism to characterize the role of mixing in pressure-balanced multiphase clouds, and demonstrate example applications using Enzo-E (magneto)hydrodynamic simulations. Under this formalism, the…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…
We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…
Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
El Ni\~no episodes are part of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we…
Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive…
This paper explores the potential of a hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with conventional physics-based modeling for weather prediction beyond the medium range. It extends the work of Arcomano et al. (2022),…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
We propose a conceptual model which generates abrupt climate changes akin to Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In the model these abrupt climate changes are not triggered by external perturbations but rather emerge in a dynamic self-consistent…
Stochastic wind sea is an intermediate small-scale physical process responsible for the state of the atmospheric boundary layer and the water upper layer, having dynamics of all scales. To describe behavior of this system, one could use the…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric winds is the most striking example of mean-flow generation and reversal by the non-linear interactions of internal waves. Previous studies have used an idealized monochromatic forcing to…
The adjoint of an ocean general circulation model is used as a tool for investigating the causes of changes in ENSO SST indices. We identify adjoint Kelvin and Rossby waves in the sensitivities to sea level and wind stress at earlier times,…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
This study presents the first systematic comparison of the (thermo-)dynamics associated with all major tropical wave types causing rainfall modulation over northern tropical Africa: Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Equatorial Rossby waves…
This study introduces the second version of the Integrated Climate Model (ICM). ICM is developed by the Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics to improve the short-term climate prediction of the East…
The evolution of wind-generated near-inertial waves (NIWs) is known to be influenced by the mesoscale eddy field, yet it remains a challenge to disentangle the effects of this interaction in observations. Here, the model of Young and Ben…