Related papers: A Stochastic Conceptual Model for the Coupled ENSO…
Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold…
Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
Extreme weather events are widely studied in fields such as agriculture, ecology, and meteorology. The spatio-temporal co-occurrence of extreme events can strengthen or weaken under changing climate conditions. In this paper, we propose a…
Dominant modes of SST in the west and east Pacific show strong but regionally different gradients caused by waves, internal dynamics, and anthropogenic warming, which drives air-sea interaction in the Pacific. The study discusses the…
A bivariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) technique for the postprocessing of ensemble forecasts of two-dimensional wind vectors is proposed, where the postprocessed probabilistic forecast takes the form of a bivariate normal…
In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations…
Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized…
A model-based extended state observer (MB-ESO) and its variant are proposed for discrete-time linear multivariable systems, where multiple disturbances are defined as an extended state vector in the same manner as in the original…
Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…
The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence…
Extreme El Ni\~no events, such as occurred in 1997--1998, can induce severe weather on a global scale, with significant socioeconomic impacts that motivate efforts to understand them better. However, extreme El Ni\~no events are rare, and…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
The winter climate of the East/Japan Sea (EJS) is strongly affected by the Arctic Oscillation (AO), yet how AO polarity reshapes the memory, coupling patterns, and predictability of sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) remains poorly…
We present the overview of the MOSE project (MOdeling ESO Sites) aiming at proving the feasibility of the forecast of the classical atmospherical parameters (wind speed intensity and direction, temperature, relative humidity) and the…
West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM).Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation…
Global weather patterns and regimes are heavily influenced by the dominant modes of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV), North…
Weather forecasts are typically given in the form of forecast ensembles obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with varying initial conditions and physics parameterizations. Such ensemble predictions tend to be…
Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist,…
We consider the numerical approximation of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) based models for a quasi-periodic climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as El Ni\~no phenomenon. We show that for these models the…
Understanding the atmospheric low-frequency variability is of crucial importance in fields such as climate studies, climate change detection, and extended-range weather forecast. The Northern Hemisphere climate features the planetary waves…