Related papers: A Stochastic Conceptual Model for the Coupled ENSO…
The mechanisms of interaction between the seasonal cycle and ENSO are investigated using the Zebiak and Cane ENSO prediction model. The most dominant seasonal effect is found to be due to the wind divergence field, as determined by the…
We discuss a simple three layer model of the tropical atmosphere. The rainfall variance of the model is dominated by a rainfall mode moving parallel to the equator having the approximate size and propagation speed of the Madden-Julian…
Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep…
The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
The emergence of oscillations in models of the El-Ni\~no effect is of utmost relevance. Here we investigate a coupled nonlinear delay differential system modeling theEl-Ni\~no/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which arises through…
Humid heat stress and heatwaves pose significant risks for living organisms, from humans and wildlife to insects. These threats have wide-ranging health, ecological, and socio-economic impacts that are expected to worsen with climate…
Reliable long-lead forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains a long-standing challenge in climate science. The previously developed Multimodal ENSO Forecast (MEF) model uses 80 ensemble predictions by two independent…
The accurate long-term forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still one of the biggest challenges in climate science. While it is true that short-to medium-range performance has been improved significantly using the…
A dynamic equation for a large scale convective event in the tropical atmosphere similar to the Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) is suggested based on the meridional vorticity equation with buoyancy parametrized by Convective Available…
We examine how coupling functions in the theory of dynamical systems provide a quantitative window into climate dynamics. Previously we have shown that a one-dimensional periodic non-autonomous stochastic dynamical system can simulate the…
We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting which generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important driver of global weather and climate extremes, but its prediction in operational dynamical models remains challenging, with skillful forecasts typically limited to 3-4 weeks. Here, we…
Recent observations have indicated significant modulation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) by the phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during boreal winter. Composites of the MJO show that upper tropospheric ice…
The effects of El Ni\~no's two distinct flavors, East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki El Ni\~no, on global climate variability have been studied intensively in recent years. Most of these studies have made use of linear…
Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards…
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale convective system characterized by large-scale envelopes of enhanced and suppressed convection that contain numerous mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). While MCSs are widely…
The Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an influential climate phenomenon that plays a vital role in modulating global weather patterns. In spite of the improvement in MJO predictions made by machine learning algorithms, such as neural…