Related papers: Has the Recession Started?
Recent highly cited research uses time-series evidence to argue the decline in interest rates led to a large rise in economic profits and markups. We show the size of these estimates is sensitive to the sample start date: The rise in…
In the area of credit risk analytics, current Bankruptcy Prediction Models (BPMs) struggle with (a) the availability of comprehensive and real-world data sets and (b) the presence of extreme class imbalance in the data (i.e., very few…
This paper studies the 2021 U.S. inflation forecasting failure. I show that the failure was primarily driven by sample composition rather than functional-form misspecification: estimation samples dominated by the Great Moderation…
Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a…
With a new deprivation (or poverty) function, in this paper, we theoretically study the changes in poverty with respect to the `global' mean and variance of the income distribution using Indian survey data. We show that when the income…
Reliable real estate price indicators are typically published at city level and low frequency, limiting their use for neighborhood-scale monitoring and long-horizon planning. We study whether sub-city price indices can be forecasted at…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the…
In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries…
Public perceptions and expectations of inflation shape household spending, wage bargaining, and policy support, making them key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes. However, current measures rely on infrequent surveys and offer limited…
Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…
The COVID-19 pandemic reignited debate on the U.S. Phillips curve. Using MSA-level panel data (2001-2024), we employ a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) instrumental variable strategy with a shift-share instrument to estimate core non-tradable…
Economic issues, such as inflation, energy costs, taxes, and interest rates, are a constant presence in our daily lives and have been exacerbated by global events such as pandemics, environmental disasters, and wars. A sustained history of…
A remarkable similarity in the behavior of the US S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and of the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992 (11 years shift) is presented, with particular emphasis on the structure of the bearish phases.…
Restarting a deterministic process always impedes its completion. However, it is known that restarting a random process can also lead to an opposite outcome -- expediting completion. Hence, the effect of restart is contingent on the…
It is important and informative to compare and contrast major economic crises in order to confront novel and unknown cases such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2006 Great Recession and then the 2019 pandemic have a lot to share in terms of…
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35…
The paper analyzes the current state of the world economy and offers a short-term forecast of its development. Our analysis of log-periodic oscillations in the DJIA dynamics suggests that in the second half of 2017 the United States and…
This paper presents a new estimator of the intercept of a linear regression model in cases where the outcome varaible is observed subject to a selection rule. The intercept is often in this context of inherent interest; for example, in a…
Using the latest observational data, we constrain the inflationary dynamics and the subsequent reheating epoch. Predictions for both phases can be significantly improved by employing numerically computed results compared to the slow-roll…